Match Info

Liiga

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Isomäki Areena (Pori)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Ässät		Lukko

	1	X	2
	2.4	4	2.4
	2.35	3.90	2.54
	2.48	3.85	2.55	Watch
	2.45	3.62	2.58
	2.44	3.94	2.49	Watch
	2.4	3.55	2.55
	2.39	4.05	2.49	Watch
	2.43	3.85	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.42)	3.85 ↓ (4.03)	2.51 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ässät
38.6%

Draw
24.2%

Lukko
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

23.1%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

25.4%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ässät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Ässät - Lukko Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ässät will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Bednar J. (G)	30. Salonen D. (G)
79. Nikkila P. (A)	9. Stenqvist J.
61. Jurgens C.	27. Seppala P.
48. Klingberg C. (A)	16. Beaucage A.
10. Hillis C.	93. Ruohomaa M. (A)
34. Doucet A.	18. Liedes H. (C)
Line 2
37. Maatta R. (C)	34. Viitasalo N.
7. Pulli J.	43. Valila A.
47. Pinard S.	87. Saarela A. (A)
19. Juhola P.	91. Robert F.
36. Bjorkqvist K.	25. Saarela A.
Line 3
55. Riihinen P.	96. Harpur C.
80. Nurmi P.	56. Olsson A.
8. Olofsson J.	23. Trakht D.
14. Sebok B.	29. Vanninen A.
63. Kostilainen S.	90. Hamalainen L.
Line 4
60. Soini S.	15. Tukiainen J.
26. Kim A.	48. Ikonen H.
72. Ojantakanen K.	24. Krannila J.
18. Ylitalo O.	47. Haapanen T.
Substitutes
44. Skinnari A.	57. Mensonen J.
33. Taponen R. (G)	32. Raanta A. (G)
Coaches
. Pikkarainen J.	. Lamsa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
01:50, Viitasalo N. (5 min),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
02:50, 0 - 1, Krannila J. (G), Haapanen T. (A), Ikonen H. (A2)
04:55, Seppala P. (2 min),
06:55, Kim A. (2 min),
11:12, Pinard S. (2 min),
11:12, Stenqvist J. (2 min),
17:04, 0 - 2, Robert F. (G), Tukiainen J. (A), Stenqvist J. (A2)
18:32, Nikkila P. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
12:21, Ylitalo O. (2 min),
14:17, 0 - 3, Liedes H. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Beaucage A. (A2)

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 7th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 3.

In recent outings, Ässät has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Lukko shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Lukko could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ässät has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 46:70 (averaging 2.3:3.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ässät against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 27:33 goals (averaging 2.7:3.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.45%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT ✺
25.09.26	Ässät - SaiPa	0:5 ✺
23.09.26	SaiPa - Ässät	1:2 penalties ✺
19.09.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLWWW
- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	KalPa - Lukko	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Lukko - Tappara	3:2 ✺
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
21.08.26	Ässät - Lukko	8:3
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	Lukko - Ässät	1:1
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	Lukko - Ässät	3:5
23.01.26	Ässät - Lukko	2:1 OT
13.12.25	Lukko - Ässät	8:3
12.12.25	Ässät - Lukko	1:5
25.10.25	Ässät - Lukko	3:2

Ässät - Lukko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide