Match Info

Liiga

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Olvi Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	KalPa		Lukko

	1	X	2
	2.3	4	2.5
	2.35	3.90	2.54
	2.48	3.85	2.6	Watch
	2.49	3.63	2.53
	2.41	3.98	2.51	Watch
	2.4	3.55	2.45
	2.39	4.1	2.47	Watch
	2.33	3.8	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.29)	3.85 ↓ (4.03)	2.51 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa
38.8%

Draw
24.1%

Lukko
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

23.2%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

25.3%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

KalPa - Lukko Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Korhonen R. (G)	30. Salonen D. (G)
55. Lappalainen L. (A)	9. Stenqvist J.
18. Gallet H.	27. Seppala P.
70. Hartikainen T. (A)	16. Beaucage A.
91. Vilen E.	93. Ruohomaa M. (A)
9. Maenpaa J.	18. Liedes H. (C)
Line 2
97. Kanak L.	34. Viitasalo N.
8. Ruotsalainen V.	43. Valila A.
22. Borchardt C.	87. Saarela A. (A)
12. Saarelainen J.	91. Robert F.
42. Kapanen K.	25. Saarela A.
Line 3
89. Ketola J.	96. Harpur C.
3. Karlsson A.	56. Olsson A.
54. Piitulainen J.	23. Trakht D.
28. Rissanen J. (C)	29. Vanninen A.
20. Klemetti A.	90. Hamalainen L.
Line 4
25. Pakarinen R.	15. Tukiainen J.
86. Kombe K.	48. Ikonen H.
85. Somppi O.	24. Krannila J.
41. Kononen J.	47. Haapanen T.
Substitutes
40. Lekkas S. (G)	57. Mensonen J.
21. Miilunpohja R.	32. Raanta A. (G)
Coaches
. Tervonen S.	. Lamsa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
14:33, Kanak L. (2 min),
18:57, 1 - 0, Saarelainen J. (G), Kapanen K. (A), Gallet H. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
03:12, Lappalainen L. (2 min),
17:17, 1 - 1, Saarela A. (G), Robert F. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
01:26, 1 - 2, Robert F. (G), Valila A. (A), Saarela A. (A2)
07:10, Ruohomaa M. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Lukko may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, KalPa has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 59:50 (averaging 3:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for KalPa against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 28:16 goals (averaging 2.8:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
13	KalPa	10	4	0	1	5	26:23	13

Last Results with these Odds

KalPa - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.78%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Lukko - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.05%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
23.09.26	KooKoo - KalPa	4:5 ✺
18.09.26	KalPa - Ilves	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	KalPa - HPK	7:0 ✺
09.09.26	Pelicans - KalPa	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	KalPa - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWLW
- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.09.26	Lukko - Tappara	3:2 ✺
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Lukko - JYP	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
17.03.26	Lukko - KalPa	6:5 OT
22.11.25	KalPa - Lukko	6:2
18.12.24	Lukko - KalPa	5:3
13.12.24	KalPa - Lukko	1:4
01.03.24	Lukko - KalPa	3:2
14.02.24	KalPa - Lukko	5:2
30.09.23	Lukko - KalPa	2:1

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