Match Info

Liiga

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		Vaasan Sport

	1	X	2
	1.51	5.00	4.50
	1.50	4.75	5.00
	1.50	4.70	5.40	Watch
	1.48	4.65	5.49
	1.58	4.51	4.7	Watch
	1.45	4.55	5.35
	1.48	4.90	5.48	Watch
	1.51	4.60	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.65)	4.71 ↑ (4.37)	5.09 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lukko
62%

Draw
19.8%

Vaasan Sport
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

21.4%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

19.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lukko's performance.

Vaasan Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaasan Sport than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vaasan Sport could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lukko - Vaasan Sport Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
30. Salonen D. (G)	53. Harkonen M. (G)
34. Viitasalo N.	8. Viljanen V.
43. Valila A.	55. Koivisto M. (C)
16. Beaucage A.	22. Walther I.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	28. Sundstrom J. (A)
18. Liedes H. (C)	17. Diaco G.
Line 2
9. Stenqvist J.	16. Johnsson T.
27. Seppala P.	62. Akerstrom S.
87. Saarela A. (A)	86. Granath P.
91. Robert F.	9. Grainger L.
25. Saarela A.	71. Nieminen V.
Line 3
96. Harpur C.	26. Burger E.
56. Olsson A.	6. Kangas K.
23. Trakht D.	3. Bertrand C.
29. Vanninen A.	12. Straka A.
90. Hamalainen L.	80. Miketinac K.
Line 4
15. Tukiainen J.	77. Valtanen J.
57. Mensonen J.	24. Levanen E.
48. Ikonen H.	63. Heikkinen L. (A)
75. Virtanen S.	18. Timonen S.
47. Haapanen T.	10. Pietila B.
Substitutes
1. Kartano M. (G)	31. Ortio J. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Mikkola L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
00:35, Sundstrom J. (2 min),
04:46, Tukiainen J. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
04:36, 0 - 1, Granath P. (G), Grainger L. (A), Kangas K. (A2)
12:37, Grainger L. (2 min),
15:32, Mensonen J. (2 min),
18:49, 1 - 1, Beaucage A. (G), Saarela A. (A), Harpur C. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
11:05, Johnsson T. (2 min),
11:25, 1 - 2, Granath P. (G),
19:13, Sundstrom J. (2 min),
20:00, Johnsson T. (2 min),
20:00, Beaucage A. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 3.

Recent form of Lukko has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Vaasa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lukko may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lukko is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 46:48. (average 2.3:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 31:20. (average 3.4:2.2).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Vaasan Sport: 0.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
14	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20:31	13

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.66%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Vaasan Sport - the odds 4.26 are the expected chance of winning is 21.95%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
09.09.26	Lukko - JYP	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Lukko - Jokerit	7:2 ✺
01.09.26	Lukko - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	HPK - Lukko	4:3 penalties ✺
21.08.26	Ässät - Lukko	8:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLLL
- Vaasan Sport
Finnish SM-liiga
15.09.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	5:1 ✺
09.09.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Vaasan Sport	4:0 ✺
04.09.26	Pelicans - Vaasan Sport	6:3 ✺
01.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Jokerit	5:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
17.01.26	Vaasan Sport - Lukko	6:1
26.12.25	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	2:1 OT
01.11.25	Vaasan Sport - Lukko	2:1
31.10.25	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	3:2 OT
02.04.25	Vaasan Sport - Lukko	1:3
31.03.25	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	5:1
27.03.25	Vaasan Sport - Lukko	1:4

Lukko - Vaasan Sport: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide