Match Info

Liiga

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Helsinki Ice Hall (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HIFK		Lukko

	1	X	2
	2.20	4.25	2.55
	2.20	4.10	2.60
	2.28	4.10	2.63	Watch
	2.49	3.77	2.48
	2.26	4.22	2.61	Watch
	2.45	3.70	2.45
	2.41	4.20	2.42	Watch
	2.36	3.95	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.29)	4.04 ↑ (4.03)	2.53 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HIFK
40%

Draw
23.1%

Lukko
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

23.2%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

25.2%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

HIFK - Lukko Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Juel T. (G)	30. Salonen D. (G)
27. Ahlroth J.	34. Viitasalo N.
25. Nassen L.	43. Valila A.
43. Marleau V.	16. Beaucage A.
77. Leschyshyn J.	93. Ruohomaa M. (A)
72. Liukas E. (A)	18. Liedes H. (C)
Line 2
28. Pilo L.	9. Stenqvist J.
83. Nemecek D.	27. Seppala P.
88. Huuhtanen N. (A)	87. Saarela A. (A)
81. Pakarinen I. (C)	91. Robert F.
71. Makiaho D.	25. Saarela A.
Line 3
13. Arkko V.	96. Harpur C.
11. Melart I.	56. Olsson A.
93. Vanhatalo L.	23. Trakht D.
18. Uronen A.	29. Vanninen A.
54. Somervuori J.	90. Hamalainen L.
Line 4
67. Puutio K.	15. Tukiainen J.
37. Sippola O.	57. Mensonen J.
42. Sinivuori L.	48. Ikonen H.
12. Joki A.	24. Krannila J.
19. Leppanen O.	47. Haapanen T.
Substitutes
60. Alnefelt H. (G)	1. Kartano M. (G)
Coaches
. Jokinen O.	. Lamsa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
05:27, Somervuori J. (2 min),
10:20, Seppala P. (2 min),
11:49, 1 - 0, Pakarinen I. (G), Makiaho D. (A), Puutio K. (A2)
19:45, Huuhtanen N. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:24, Ruohomaa M. (2 min),
03:49, Juel T. ↓, Alnefelt H. ↑,
04:07, Alnefelt H. ↓, Juel T. ↑,
05:35, Liukas E. (2 min),
06:08, Stenqvist J. (2 min),
06:52, Saarela A. (2 min),
07:34, 2 - 0, Huuhtanen N. (G), Makiaho D. (A), Puutio K. (A2)
08:09, Marleau V. (2 min),
10:07, 2 - 1, Ruohomaa M. (G), Beaucage A. (A), Stenqvist J. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
06:49, Leppanen O. (2 min),
14:43, 2 - 2, Haapanen T. (G), Krannila J. (A), Olsson A. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
02:30, 2 - 3, Beaucage A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HIFK won 1.

HIFK has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lukko is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Lukko has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HIFK has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 44:58 (averaging 2.2:2.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HIFK against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with 12:34 goals (averaging 1.2:3.4 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
15	IFK Helsinki	10	2	1	2	5	25:33	10

Last Results with these Odds

HIFK - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.78%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Lukko - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.05%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
16.09.26	HIFK - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:7 ✺
09.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - HIFK	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	TPS - HIFK	5:1 ✺
04.09.26	HIFK - HPK	5:3 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	KooKoo - HIFK	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWW
- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Lukko - JYP	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Lukko - Jokerit	7:2 ✺
01.09.26	Lukko - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	HPK - Lukko	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
13.02.26	HIFK - Lukko	0:4
30.01.26	Lukko - HIFK	6:2
26.11.25	Lukko - HIFK	1:3
17.09.25	HIFK - Lukko	1:5
12.02.25	HIFK - Lukko	1:5
31.01.25	Lukko - HIFK	1:4
04.12.24	HIFK - Lukko	1:7

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