Match Info

Liiga

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		Tappara

	1	X	2
	3	4.25	1.96
	2.70	4.25	2.10
	3.05	4.3	2.02	Watch
	2.64	4.11	2.23
	2.77	4.12	2.17	Watch
	2.6	4.05	2.2
	2.68	4.15	2.23	Watch
	2.8	3.95	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.49)	4.15 ↑ (3.98)	2.13 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
33.6%

Draw
22.5%

Tappara
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

23.5%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

26%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Tappara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lukko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tappara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Lukko - Tappara Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Lukko will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tappara will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Raanta A. (G)	30. Heljanko C. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	26. Mattila Je.
27. Seppala P.	23. Jokipakka J.
16. Beaucage A.	88. Blichfeld J.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	22. Rasanen A. (A)
18. Liedes H. (C)	21. Lindqvist M.
Line 2
34. Viitasalo N.	72. Kulonummi K.
43. Valila A.	38. Almari N.
87. Saarela A. (A)	11. Simontaival K.
91. Robert F.	89. Suvanto O.
25. Saarela A.	25. Haapala H.
Line 3
96. Harpur C.	63. Tuulola J. (A)
56. Olsson A.	33. Strandell O.
23. Trakht D.	28. Wia W.
29. Vanninen A.	42. Rauhala O. (C)
90. Hamalainen L.	17. Pavel O.
Line 4
15. Tukiainen J.	5. Rasanen I.
48. Ikonen H.	41. Nykanen J.
24. Krannila J.	40. Sallinen T.
47. Haapanen T.	87. Fabre D.
Substitutes
57. Mensonen J.	32. Hovinen N. (G)
30. Salonen D. (G)	94. Vanhatalo V.
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Jalonen K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
08:49, 1 - 0, Liedes H. (G), Stenqvist J. (A), Beaucage A. (A2)
10:58, 1 - 1, Blichfeld J. (G), Rasanen A. (A), Kulonummi K. (A2)
13:54, Hamalainen L. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
01:20, Wia W. (2 min),
05:04, 1 - 2, Mattila Je. (G), Simontaival K. (A), Suvanto O. (A2)
06:09, 2 - 2, Ikonen H. (G), Krannila J. (A), Viitasalo N. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
03:42, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
07:34, 3 - 2, Saarela A. (G), Viitasalo N. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Tappara may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tappara has had a run of games away from home.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lukko has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 41:67 (averaging 2.1:3.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lukko against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with 18:26 goals (averaging 1.8:2.6 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Tappara: 25.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
9	Tappara	11	5	2	0	4	32:24	19

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.49%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Tappara - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 39.06%, but this team recently wins 28% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Lukko - JYP	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Lukko - Jokerit	7:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLLW
- Tappara hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
22.09.26	Tappara - Kärpät	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Jokerit - Tappara	0:6 ✺
17.09.26	TPS - Tappara	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	Pelicans - Tappara	2:3 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
13.09.26	Rögle - Tappara	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
13.03.26	Tappara - Lukko	6:2
14.02.26	Lukko - Tappara	1:4
30.09.25	Tappara - Lukko	4:0
10.09.25	Lukko - Tappara	1:4
18.01.25	Tappara - Lukko	2:4
17.01.25	Lukko - Tappara	3:2 OT
23.11.24	Lukko - Tappara	3:4 OT

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