Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Ässät U20		Lukko U20

	1	X	2
	1.52	4.5	3.8
	2.55	3.97	2.17
	2.71	4.17	2.09	Watch
	1.8	4	3.2
	2.61	3.9	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.63)	4.11 ↓ (4.36)	2.69 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ässät U20
42.1%

Draw
22.9%

Lukko U20
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

21.1%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

21.5%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ässät U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ässät U20's form might have worsened.

Lukko U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lukko U20's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät U20 than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ässät U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko U20 than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lukko U20, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ässät U20 - Lukko U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
12:43, 1 - 0, Kim A. (G), Aijala E. (A), Eskola P. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
14:02, 1 - 1, Floris J. (G), Tuuva L. (A), Valila A. (A2)
18:48, 2 - 1, Leppanen H. (G), Ylitalo O. (A), Jussila E. (A2)

Preview

Ässät U20 is Qualified for SM~sarja U20 (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät U20 won 2.

Ässät U20 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lukko U20 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ässät U20 is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ässät U20 won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 60:60. (average 3:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ässät U20 won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Lukko U20	11	7	1	0	3	35:25	23
14	Assat U20	12	1	4	1	6	32:39	12

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät U20 - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 56.45%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ässät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
28.02.26	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - Ässät U20	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Ässät U20 - Jokerit U20	3:2 ✺
21.02.26	Ässät U20 - Pelicans U20	2:1 OT ✺
20.02.26	Tappara U20 - Ässät U20	3:1 ✺
13.02.26	Ässät U20 - KooKoo U20	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWLW
- Lukko U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
28.02.26	Lukko U20 - KooKoo U20	4:1 ✺
27.02.26	Lukko U20 - HIFK U20	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	SaiPa U20 - Lukko U20	1:5 ✺
20.02.26	KooKoo U20 - Lukko U20	4:3 penalties ✺
14.02.26	HPK U20 - Lukko U20	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
11.02.26	Lukko U20 - Ässät U20	5:4
12.09.25	Lukko U20 - Ässät U20	2:1 penalties
05.09.25	Ässät U20 - Lukko U20	2:1
21.12.24	Ässät U20 - Lukko U20	3:1
07.12.24	Ässät U20 - Lukko U20	1:4
15.11.24	Lukko U20 - Ässät U20	3:2 OT
14.09.24	Lukko U20 - Ässät U20	5:2

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