Match Info

MHL

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday


	AKM Novomoskovsk		Chaika

	1	X	2
	6.4	5.38	1.31
	7.42	6	1.27	Watch
	7.75	8	1.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.19 ↑ (4.31)	6.46 ↑ (4.7)	1.25 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AKM Novomoskovsk
12.7%

Draw
14.1%

Chaika
73.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.3%

19.5%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

22.1%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AKM Novomoskovsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AKM Novomoskovsk's form might have worsened.

Chaika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chaika's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AKM Novomoskovsk than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AKM Novomoskovsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaika than the current prediction. (-20.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chaika, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

AKM Novomoskovsk - Chaika Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Chaika will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaika (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Chaika (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaika (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Mandrykin K. (G)	30. Gritsenko Y. (G)
58. Putyunin A.	65. Chesnokov I. (C)
79. Ponomaryov D.	81. Mullerov I.
10. Kazharin I. (C)	9. Skvortsov S. (A)
43. Kalach M.	15. Matyuk A.
81. Bogatin M.	75. Melnikov Y.
Line 2
3. Badikov A.	28. Gavrilov L.
24. Kulikov A. (A)	73. Anisimov Y.
33. Likhachev V.	12. Mishin V.
67. Kubankov D.	77. Stafeyev G.
80. Olikh A.	91. Opolinsky M.
Line 3
31. Kurzhiyamsky M.	23. Guryev S.
69. Rostkov V.	76. Belyakov K.
32. Akhmetkhanov N.	5. Gornov S.
55. Rulin M. (A)	7. Glazunov M.
86. Novikov M.	16. Bessonov A.
Line 4
74. Biktimirov A.	86. Popov Y.
15. Gordyukov A.	90. Komarov A.
45. Degterov D.	97. Kulyabin A.
71. Krasin D.
Substitutes
1. Khabibulin R. (G)	8. Kozin V. (A)
30. Skryabin N. (G)	74. Sabitov M. (G)
	17. Salnikov L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
10:36, 1 - 0, Kubankov D. (G), Olikh A. (A),
11:00, 2 - 0, Krasin D. (G), Gordyukov A. (A), Degterov D. (A2)
19:07, 2 - 1, Bessonov A. (G), Melnikov Y. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 2)
00:06, 2 - 2, Chesnokov I. (G), Matyuk A. (A),
13:02, 2 - 3, Mishin V. (G), Opolinsky M. (A),
14:12, 3 - 3, Kalach M. (G), Putyunin A. (A), Kazharin I. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 2)
01:17, 4 - 3, Gordyukov A. (G),
05:51, 4 - 4, Matyuk A. (G), Skvortsov S. (A), Guryev S. (A2)
09:32, 5 - 4, Kazharin I. (G),
18:29, 5 - 5, Skvortsov S. (G),
Overtime (0 - 1)
02', 5 - 6, (G),

Preview

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

AKM Novomoskovsk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chaika has had a series of home games.

In this match, Chaika is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, AKM Novomoskovsk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:14. (average 1:4.7).

Including home match between the teams, AKM Novomoskovsk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AKM Novomoskovsk
MHL
21.01.26	AKM Novomoskovsk - Irbis Kazan	3:4 OT ✺
18.01.26	AKM Novomoskovsk - Loko-76	2:3 OT ✺
14.01.26	Reaktor - AKM Novomoskovsk	6:1 ✺
13.01.26	Reaktor - AKM Novomoskovsk	7:2 ✺
10.01.26	Sputnik Almetyevsk - AKM Novomoskovsk	5:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLW
- Chaika Nizhny Novgorod
MHL
21.01.26	Loko-76 - Chaika	4:2 ✺
15.01.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 OT ✺
13.01.26	Chaika - Tolpar	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Chaika - Stalnye Lisy	1:7 ✺
10.01.26	Chaika - Stalnye Lisy	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
14.11.25	Chaika - AKM Novomoskovsk	5:2
16.12.24	AKM Novomoskovsk - Chaika	0:4
20.09.24	Chaika - AKM Novomoskovsk	5:1

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