Match Info

MHL

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	Almaz		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.98	2.31
	2.74	4.47	2.1	Watch
	2.65	4.3	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.28)	4.25 ↓ (4.7)	2.14 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Almaz
35.1%

Draw
21.7%

Tolpar
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

19.8%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

20.3%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Almaz's form might have worsened.

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almaz than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almaz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Almaz - Tolpar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
94. Melchakov A. (G)	99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)
98. Gulenok T.	89. Shcherbakov N.
43. Kichigin N.	33. Agafonov M.
81. Kazulayev D. (A)	28. Akhsyanov B. (C)
11. Kalinin T.	37. Zagrebin M.
3. Ulyanov V.	67. Khabibullin A. (A)
Line 2
36. Konovalov M.	86. Volkov D.
71. Korzin A. (C)	23. Khafzetdinov A.
92. Prishchepa I.	47. Fogelnest M.
44. Bayushev G.	42. Koltsov N.
24. Denezhkin V. (A)	10. Shermakov A.
Line 3
4. Smirnov I.	16. Khusainov R.
64. Korsakov A.	36. Gunkin Y. (A)
54. Maslov M.	26. Degtyarev M.
28. Biryukov V.	87. Buzdyganov V.
91. Perminov T.	75. Shebyakin M.
Line 4
14. Istomin L.	74. Adamyan A.
79. Zakharov I.	70. Agliullin S.
37. Savin V.	78. Zhuk A.
15. Kosenko S.	18. Kireyev R.
25. Yurgin S.	14. Akhmetov Y.
Substitutes
50. Bogatyrev B. (G)	30. Povarov M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
01:51, 0 - 1, Buzdyganov V. (G), Gunkin Y. (A), Shebyakin M. (A2)
13:14, 0 - 2, Degtyarev M. (G), Shebyakin M. (A), Volkov D. (A2)
18:02, 1 - 2, Biryukov V. (G), Savin V. (A), Perminov T. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 4)
00:24, 1 - 3, Koltsov N. (G), Volkov D. (A), Fogelnest M. (A2)
08:20, 1 - 4, Kireyev R. (G),
09:17, 2 - 4, Kazulayev D. (G), Ulyanov V. (A),
09:46, 2 - 5, Shebyakin M. (G), Zhuk A. (A), Koltsov N. (A2)
10:09, 2 - 6, Degtyarev M. (G), Adamyan A. (A), Khusainov R. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
10:14, 2 - 7, Zagrebin M. (G), Khafzetdinov A. (A), Khabibullin A. (A2)
10:45, 3 - 7, Bayushev G. (G), Ulyanov V. (A),

Preview

Almaz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tolpar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Almaz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Almaz has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Almaz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Last Results with these Odds

Almaz - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.8%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Tolpar - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.41%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almaz Cherepovets
MHL
17.12.25	Almaz - SKA-1946	0:7 ✺
16.12.25	Almaz - SKA-1946	3:4 ✺
13.12.25	Almaz - Dinamo St. Petersburg	5:2 ✺
12.12.25	Almaz - Dinamo St. Petersburg	2:5 ✺
08.12.25	Avto - Almaz	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWLL
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
16.12.25	Stalnye Lisy - Tolpar	2:3 ✺
12.12.25	Avto - Tolpar	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	Tolpar - Dinamo-Shinnik	5:4 penalties ✺
04.12.25	Tolpar - Almaz	4:1 ✺
02.12.25	Tolpar - Krasnaya Armiya	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
04.12.25	Tolpar - Almaz	4:1

Upcoming Matches