Match Info

AHL

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday

Location: CAA Arena (Belleville, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Belleville Senators		Hershey Bears

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.4	Watch
	2.38	3.95	2.45
	2.25	3.98	2.67
	2.48	4.22	2.33	Watch
	2.38	4	2.38
	2.2	4	2.54	Watch
	2.4	3.75	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.58)	3.99 ↑ (3.98)	2.45 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belleville Senators
39.4%

Draw
23.1%

Hershey Bears
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

22.9%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

24.4%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belleville Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Hershey Bears has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belleville Senators than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hershey Bears than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Merilainen L. (G)	35. Gibson M. (G)
5. Bongiovanni W.	7. Belpedio L. (A)
16. Boucher T.	5. Chesley R.
13. Bourgault X.	92. Clarke G.
10. Daoust P. (A)	20. Cristall A.
11. Donovan J.	19. Cruikshank G.
48. Gilbert D.	48. Gucciardi D.
34. Halliday S.	25. Hofer R.
29. Hamara T.	23. Leason B.
14. Harrington S. (A)	47. McDonald J.
39. Hookey L.	10. Miroshnichenko I.
24. Jenik J.	34. Muggli L.
43. Kaliyev A.	40. Protas I.
15. Lycksell O.	12. Rybinski H.
32. Pettersson O.	6. Schueneman C. (A)
22. Pilon G. (C)	37. Smith D.
19. Rees J.	45. Strome M. (A)
33. Thomson L.	41. Suzdalev A.
26. Yakemchuk C.	44. Trineyev B.
Substitutes
31. Parsons J. (G)	31. Stevenson C. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
19:44, 0 - 1, Belpedio L. (G), Miroshnichenko I. (A), Rybinski H. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
15:49, 1 - 1, Lycksell O. (G), Thomson L. (A), Daoust P. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
08:09, 2 - 1, Bongiovanni W. (G),
19:52, 3 - 1, Daoust P. (G),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 2.

Belleville is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hershey has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hershey may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Hershey has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 52:69. (average 2.6:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Belleville won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:47. (average 2.1:4.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Belleville Senators - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.32%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Hershey Bears - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 41.8%, but this team recently wins 35% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belleville Senators
AHL
14.02.26	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	3:6 ✺
07.02.26	Belleville Senators - Syracuse Crunch	2:5 ✺
06.02.26	Syracuse Crunch - Belleville Senators	5:3 ✺
04.02.26	Rochester Americans - Belleville Senators	1:3 ✺
31.01.26	Cleveland Monsters - Belleville Senators	6:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL
- Hershey Bears
AHL
14.02.26	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	3:6 ✺
13.02.26	Laval Rocket - Hershey Bears	6:1 ✺
07.02.26	Hershey Bears - Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins	3:4 OT ✺
04.02.26	Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins - Hershey Bears	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Utica Comets - Hershey Bears	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
14.02.26	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	3:6
05.03.25	Hershey Bears - Belleville Senators	2:6
25.01.25	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	3:5
24.01.25	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	4:3 OT
17.01.25	Hershey Bears - Belleville Senators	4:1
19.02.24	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	2:4
14.10.23	Hershey Bears - Belleville Senators	0:3

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