Match Info

NHL

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Buffalo Sabres		Washington Capitals

	1	X	2
	1.74	4.5	3.8	Watch
	1.8	4.3	3.7
	1.8	4.6	3.65
	1.75	4.63	3.79	Watch
	1.67	4.2	3.6
	1.8	4.6	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.09)	4.47 ↑ (4.28)	3.7 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buffalo Sabres
53.5%

Draw
21.1%

Washington Capitals
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

22.1%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

22.4%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buffalo Sabres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Buffalo Sabres's performance.

Washington Capitals has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Washington Capitals might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buffalo Sabres than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Buffalo Sabres that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Washington Capitals than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Washington Capitals could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	0%	18.7%

Buffalo Sabres - Washington Capitals Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, OT - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Buffalo Sabres will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Buffalo Sabres will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Luukkonen U. (G)	79. Lindgren C. (G)
26. Dahlin R. (C)	3. Roy M. (A)
23. Samuelsson M. (A)	38. Sandin R.
86. Ostlund N.	72. Beauvillier A.
72. Thompson T.	34. Sourdif J.
6. Benson Z.	8. Ovechkin A. (C)
Line 2
25. Power O.	57. Van Riemsdyk T.
4. Byram B.	6. Chychrun J.
89. Tuch A. (A)	9. Leonard R.
9. Norris J.	80. Dubois P.
91. Doan J.	24. McMichael C.
Line 3
5. Schenn L.	37. Liljegren T.
64. Stanley L.	42. Fehervary M.
22. Quinn J.	43. Wilson T. (A)
71. McLeod R.	17. Strome D.
17. Zucker J.	21. Protas A.
Line 4
29. Malenstyn B.	53. Frank E.
10. Carrick S.	29. Lapierre H.
19. Krebs P.	22. Duhaime B.
Substitutes
34. Lyon A. (G)	48. Thompson L. (G)
Coaches
. Ruff L.	. Carbery S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
06:02, 1 - 0, Carrick S. (G), Malenstyn B. (A), Power O. (A2)
17:50, McMichael C. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
02:14, 1 - 1, Leonard R. (G),
12:50, Pearson T. (2 min),
16:41, Fehervary M. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
06:08, Stanley L. (2 min),
18:27, 1 - 2, Chychrun J. (G), Protas A. (A), Van Riemsdyk T. (A2)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Buffalo won 4.

Buffalo is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Washington has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Buffalo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Buffalo has had a series of home games.

Buffalo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Buffalo: Danforth J. (Lower-Body Injury) Greenway J. (Abdominal strain) Kulich J. (Health problems) Timmins C. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Buffalo: Kozak T. (Injury)

We predict that Buffalo will win today's game, with odds of 1.82.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Buffalo won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 76:72. (average 3.8:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Buffalo won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 33:31. (average 3.7:3.4).

Outrights of NHL for now

Washington Capitals: 5.74% Buffalo Sabres: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Washington Capitals - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.7%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buffalo Sabres
NHL
10.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - San Jose Sharks	6:3 ✺
08.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Tampa Bay Lightning	8:7 ✺
07.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Nashville Predators	3:2 ✺
05.03.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Buffalo Sabres	1:5 ✺
03.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Vegas Golden Knights	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWWWW
- Washington Capitals
NHL
11.03.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Washington Capitals	4:1 ✺
09.03.26	Washington Capitals - Calgary Flames	7:3 ✺
07.03.26	Boston Bruins - Washington Capitals	3:1 ✺
03.03.26	Washington Capitals - Utah Mammoth	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Montreal Canadiens - Washington Capitals	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
01.11.25	Buffalo Sabres - Washington Capitals	4:3 penalties
30.03.25	Washington Capitals - Buffalo Sabres	5:8
06.01.25	Buffalo Sabres - Washington Capitals	4:3 penalties
14.12.24	Washington Capitals - Buffalo Sabres	4:2
11.04.24	Buffalo Sabres - Washington Capitals	4:2
02.04.24	Buffalo Sabres - Washington Capitals	6:2
22.11.23	Washington Capitals - Buffalo Sabres	4:3 OT

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