Match Info

NHL

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit, MI)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Vinter
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Vinter
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Detroit Red Wings		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	2.15	4.2	2.8	Watch
	2.17	4.28	2.78
	2.15	4.31	2.81	Watch
	2.2	4.33	2.75
	2.21	4.31	2.76
	2.2	4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.26)	4.24 ↓ (4.52)	2.78 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Detroit Red Wings
43.5%

Draw
22.4%

Toronto Maple Leafs
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

21.5%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

21.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Detroit Red Wings has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Detroit Red Wings than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	36.4%	18.2%

Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Detroit will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Toronto will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Detroit: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
39. Talbot C. (G)	35. Hildeby D. (G)
53. Seider M. (A)	51. Myers P.
77. Edvinsson S.	44. Rielly M. (A)
23. Raymond L. (A)	11. Domi M.
71. Larkin D. (C)	34. Matthews A. (C)
58. Finnie E.	74. McMann B.
Line 2
44. Sandin-Pellikka A.	8. Tanev C.
8. Chiarot B.	22. McCabe J.
88. Kane P.	23. Knies M.
18. Copp A.	91. Tavares J. (A)
93. DeBrincat A.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 3
25. Bernard-Docker J.	28. Stecher T.
20. Johansson A.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
22. Appleton M.	89. Robertson N.
37. Compher J.T.	55. Roy N.
27. Rasmussen M.	81. Joshua D.
Line 4
43. Leonard J.	53. Cowan E.
29. Danielson N.	24. Laughton S.
92. Kasper M.	18. Lorentz S.
Substitutes
36. Gibson J. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
Coaches
. McLellan T.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
03:29, Chiarot B. (2 min),
04:25, 0 - 1, Knies M. (G), Matthews A. (A), Tavares J. (A2)
09:31, Compher J.T. (2 min),
19:01, 1 - 1, Seider M. (G), Raymond L. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
04:53, 1 - 2, Robertson N. (G), Tavares J. (A),
05:16, 2 - 2, Appleton M. (G), Rasmussen M. (A), Johansson A. (A2)
10:14, Seider M. (2 min),
10:14, McMann B. (2 min),
10:14, McMann B. (2 min),
Overtime (1 - 0)
01:46, 3 - 2, Edvinsson S. (G),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Detroit won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Detroit might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Mermis D. (Lower-Body Injury) Rifai M. (Wrist Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Detroit: Kane P. (Upper-Body Injury)

We predict that Detroit will win today's game, with odds of 2.11.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Detroit won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 61:62. (average 3.1:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Detroit won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:28. (average 3.3:3.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 35.65%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Detroit Red Wings
NHL
27.12.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Detroit Red Wings	5:2 ✺
23.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Dallas Stars	4:3 OT ✺
21.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Washington Capitals	3:2 OT ✺
20.12.25	Washington Capitals - Detroit Red Wings	2:5 ✺
17.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Utah Mammoth	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LWWWL
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
27.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	7:5 ✺
23.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	6:3 ✺
21.12.25	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Nashville Predators - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:3 ✺
18.12.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
13.10.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	2:3
11.10.25	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:3
04.10.25	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT
02.10.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	1:3
17.04.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	4:3 OT
27.12.24	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:5
14.12.24	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2

Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide