Match Info

NHL

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	NHL.tv, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	TNT, truTV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Pittsburgh Penguins

	1	X	2
	2.2	4.2	2.7	Watch
	2.2	3.69	3.05
	2.18	4.29	2.77	Watch
	2.2	4.33	2.75
	2.2	4.57	2.79	Watch
	2.2	4.25	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.94)	4.22 ↓ (4.57)	2.79 ↓ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
43.4%

Draw
22.6%

Pittsburgh Penguins
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

20.7%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

19.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.

Pittsburgh Penguins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Pittsburgh will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	74. Skinner S. (G)
51. Myers P.	65. Karlsson E.
44. Rielly M. (A)	28. Wotherspoon P.
11. Domi M.	17. Rust B. (A)
34. Matthews A. (C)	87. Crosby S. (C)
23. Knies M.	67. Rakell R.
Line 2
28. Stecher T.	58. Letang K. (A)
22. McCabe J.	77. Kulak B.
88. Nylander W.	39. Mantha A.
91. Tavares J. (A)	18. Novak T.
63. Maccelli M.	16. Brazeau J.
Line 3
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	3. St.Ivany J.
2. Benoit S.	5. Shea R.
74. McMann B.	41. Koivunen V.
55. Roy N.	81. Kindel B.
89. Robertson N.	2. McGroarty R.
Line 4
18. Lorentz S.	55. Acciari N.
24. Laughton S.	13. Hayes K.
81. Joshua D.	19. Dewar C.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)	37. Silovs A. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Muse D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
09:07, 1 - 0, Nylander W. (G),
09:51, 1 - 1, Rust B. (G), Crosby S. (A), Letang K. (A2)
13:34, 2 - 1, Maccelli M. (G), Nylander W. (A), Myers P. (A2)
20:00, Letang K. (2 min),
20:00, McMann B. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
07:38, 3 - 1, Lorentz S. (G),
11:43, 3 - 2, McGroarty R. (G),
3rd Period (3 - 1)
01:00, 3 - 3, Mantha A. (G), Wotherspoon P. (A), Brazeau J. (A2)
09:10, Karlsson E. (2 min),
09:41, Maccelli M. (2 min),
09:57, Kindel B. (2 min),
11:35, 4 - 3, Domi M. (G), Ekman-Larsson O. (A), Nylander W. (A2)
17:57, 5 - 3, McMann B. (G), Domi M. (A),
18:36, 6 - 3, Nylander W. (G), Tavares J. (A), Knies M. (A2)
19:15, Myers P. (2 min),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Mermis D. (Lower-Body Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Upper-Body Injury)

There will not play in Pittsburgh: Hallander F. (Leg Injury) Jones C. (Lower-Body Injury) Lizotte B. (Upper-Body Injury) Malkin E. (Upper-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 66:55. (average 3.3:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:19. (average 3.1:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.68%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Pittsburgh Penguins - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 30.66%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
21.12.25	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Nashville Predators - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:3 ✺
18.12.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:0 ✺
16.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Chicago Blackhawks	3:2 ✺
13.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Edmonton Oilers	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWL
- Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
21.12.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Montreal Canadiens	4:3 penalties ✺
20.12.25	Montreal Canadiens - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:0 ✺
18.12.25	Ottawa Senators - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:0 ✺
16.12.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Edmonton Oilers	4:6 ✺
14.12.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Utah Mammoth	4:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
29.11.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:7
03.11.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:3
02.03.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:6 OT
07.12.24	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2
12.10.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:2
08.04.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2 OT
16.12.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	7:0

Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide