Match Info

OHL

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sleeman Centre (Guelph, ON) 🌤️ ...


	Guelph Storm		Saginaw Spirit

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.45	3.07
	1.86	4.52	3.06	Watch
	1.7	4.5	3.4
	1.8	4.4	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.68)	4.47 ↓ (5.04)	3.15 ↓ (3.42)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guelph Storm
50.6%

Draw
20.4%

Saginaw Spirit
29%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.8%

18.3%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

17.6%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guelph Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Saginaw Spirit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guelph Storm than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guelph Storm, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saginaw Spirit than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Guelph Storm - Saginaw Spirit Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guelph (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Jovanovski Z. (G)	63. Shurygin S. (G)
17. Babin P.	14. Barabanov E.
13. Beauchesne Q. (A)	6. Barch H.
89. Belohorsky S.	72. Barnes B.
3. Frossard E.	42. Cloutier J.
93. McFadden W.	15. Gervais S. (A)
72. McKenzie H.	5. Glavin J. (A)
8. Mclean A.	73. Guo J.
15. Miedema E.	13. Harmer C.
22. Pape M.	4. Harper L.
23. Paquette C. (C)	9. Jones G.
20. Serlin L.	98. Klepov N.
4. Singh R.	62. Pepoy B.
9. Snelgrove P.	10. Rausa J.
28. Soares C.	43. Satan M.
21. Spada G.	92. Sima N. (A)
96. Stevens C.	21. Storch L.
12. Topp R. (A)	26. Theuer T.
77. Wycisk J.	17. Velliaris X.
	71. Zhilkin D. (A)
Substitutes
55. Ellsworth C. (G)	31. Papineau K. (G)
78. Reznik C. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 2)
00:47, 0 - 1, Pepoy B. (G),
10:12, 1 - 1, Paquette C. (G), McFadden W. (A), Mclean A. (A2)
11:39, 1 - 2, Barabanov E. (G), Guo J. (A), Zhilkin D. (A2)
15:21, 2 - 2, Mclean A. (G), Serlin L. (A), Paquette C. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
15:17, 3 - 2, Miedema E. (G), Mclean A. (A), Serlin L. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
00:28, 4 - 2, Paquette C. (G), Mclean A. (A), Serlin L. (A2)
13:25, 4 - 3, Klepov N. (G), Barabanov E. (A),
19:41, 5 - 3, Paquette C. (G), McKenzie H. (A),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ OHL (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ OHL (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guelph won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Guelph may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Guelph is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Guelph will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guelph won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 76:85. (average 3.8:4.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Guelph won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:42. (average 3.3:4.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guelph Storm
OHL
03.12.25	Brampton Steelheads - Guelph Storm	2:5 ✺
30.11.25	Guelph Storm - Sudbury Wolves	6:2 ✺
28.11.25	Guelph Storm - Windsor Spitfires	5:4 ✺
23.11.25	Windsor Spitfires - Guelph Storm	5:1 ✺
22.11.25	Guelph Storm - Flint Firebirds	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWLL
- Saginaw Spirit
OHL
29.11.25	Saginaw Spirit - London Knights	5:8 ✺
28.11.25	London Knights - Saginaw Spirit	2:4 ✺
26.11.25	Flint Firebirds - Saginaw Spirit	5:4 ✺
22.11.25	Saginaw Spirit - Windsor Spitfires	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Windsor Spitfires - Saginaw Spirit	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

OHL
03.10.25	Guelph Storm - Saginaw Spirit	3:2 OT
27.09.25	Saginaw Spirit - Guelph Storm	3:7
22.02.25	Saginaw Spirit - Guelph Storm	2:5
08.02.25	Guelph Storm - Saginaw Spirit	7:10
18.01.25	Saginaw Spirit - Guelph Storm	6:2
13.12.24	Guelph Storm - Saginaw Spirit	6:7
15.03.24	Guelph Storm - Saginaw Spirit	4:5 OT

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