Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Canada	11:30	TSN+
Czech Republic	17:30	Sport 1
Denmark	17:30	Viaplay
Finland	18:30	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Norway	17:30	Viaplay
Poland	17:30	Polsat Sport 3
Slovakia	17:30	Sport 1
Slovenia	17:30	Arena Sport 2
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Usa	11:30	NHL Network


	Ilves		Luleå

	1	X	2
	2.1	4	2.7	Watch
	2.18	4.49	2.69
	2.31	3.97	2.49
	2.06	4.2	2.88
	2.15	4.2	2.6
	2.26	4.05	2.68	Watch
	2.2	4.4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.48)	4.19 ↓ (4.38)	2.67 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
42.8%

Draw
22.3%

Luleå
34.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.5%

21.2%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

21.4%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilves's performance.

Luleå has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luleå might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luleå than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luleå could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ilves - Luleå Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
39. Pavlat D. (G)	31. Ward M. (G)
23. Johansson S.	3. Allard F.
57. Parikka J.	29. Gustafsson E. (C)
46. Torok M.	24. Shinnimin B.
9. Jasek L.	91. O'Neill B. (A)
17. Ratinen S.	27. Tardif B.
Line 2
3. Utunen T. (A)	11. Laaksonen O.
28. Nyberg J.	82. Leskinen O.
29. Looke J.	67. Omark L.
12. Mantykivi M.	96. Andreasson P.
92. Henman L.	6. Hedqvist I.
Line 3
43. Latvala O.	39. Sjalin P.
5. Niskanen A.	23. Sellgren J. (A)
38. Teuho-Markkola T.	25. Eriksson F.
11. Borg E. (A)	13. Koivistoinen E.
22. Engberg T.	86. Brome M.
Line 4
27. Laurell E.	55. Kotkansalo K.
6. Soini S.	15. Granberg D.
72. Svejkovsky L.	9. Liedes H.
86. Nattinen J. (C)	30. Thomasson D.
20. Bjorkqvist K.
Substitutes
60. Kuivila J. (G)	34. Lassinantti J. (G)
Coaches
. Niemela T.	. Berglund T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
06:27, Sjalin P. (2 min),
18:54, Allard F. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
08:43, Laaksonen O. (2 min),
10:13, Henman L. (2 min),
15:07, Tardif B. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 3)
04:09, Leskinen O. (2 min),
04:09, Henman L. (2 min),
05:06, Thomasson D. (2 min),
08:22, Bjorkqvist K. (2 min),
08:51, 0 - 1, O'Neill B. (G), Allard F. (A), Gustafsson E. (A2)
12:21, 0 - 2, Andreasson P. (G), Allard F. (A), Shinnimin B. (A2)
12:21, Torok M. (2 min),
14:07, Laaksonen O. (2 min),
16:18, 0 - 3, Laaksonen O. (G), Brome M. (A), Koivistoinen E. (A2)

Preview

1st leg result: 2-3. 2nd leg.

Ilves is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Luleå is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Luleå may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Luleå has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 2.3.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ilves won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Luleå - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.27%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
13.12.25	KooKoo - Ilves	1:2 ✺
12.12.25	Ilves - KooKoo	3:0 ✺
05.12.25	Ässät - Ilves	3:4 penalties ✺
04.12.25	Ilves - HPK	3:2 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
02.12.25	Luleå - Ilves	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWWL
- Luleå HF
SHL
06.12.25	Luleå - Färjestad	2:5 ✺
04.12.25	Luleå - Växjö Lakers	2:3 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
02.12.25	Luleå - Ilves	3:2 ✺
SHL
29.11.25	Timrå - Luleå	3:2 ✺
27.11.25	Luleå - Leksand	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Champions League Ice Hockey
02.12.25	Luleå - Ilves	3:2

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