Match Info

Liiga

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Ilves		HPK

	1	X	2
	1.71	4	4.3
	1.82	3.85	4.05
	1.82	4	4.3
	1.73	4	4.26
	1.7	4.2	3.9
	1.81	4.2	3.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.74)	4.04 ↑ (4.01)	4.08 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
53.5%

Draw
23.4%

HPK
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

23.2%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

23.9%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Ilves - HPK Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
40. Armalis M. (G)	1. Saarinen K. (G)
23. Johansson S.	43. Kukkonen M.
57. Parikka J.	4. Jokirinne V.
46. Torok M.	16. Wright C.
12. Mantykivi M.	12. Paivarinta S.
17. Ratinen S.	94. Hakulinen A. (A)
Line 2
53. Pelli A.	63. Eronen E.
21. Kucerik R.	20. Pyke G.
48. Klingberg C. (A)	88. Kiiskinen J.
92. Henman L.	15. Korhonen O.
20. Bjorkqvist K.	11. Caron T.
Line 3
3. Utunen T. (A)	74. Nikkila P. (C)
28. Nyberg J.	5. Andzans A.
89. Quenneville P.	8. Alitalo V.
11. Borg E.	25. Huttunen H.
15. Kos O.	10. Vesterinen R.
Line 4
43. Latvala O.	3. Kangas K.
38. Teuho-Markkola T.	50. Skinnari A.
86. Nattinen J. (C)	64. Kainulainen H. (A)
25. Heikkinen I.	44. Kopiloff O.
Substitutes
39. Pavlat D. (G)	33. Vayrynen M. (G)
Coaches
. Niemela T.	. Manner M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
11:04, (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
02:18, Huttunen H. (2 min),
07:54, 0 - 1, Eronen E. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Kiiskinen J. (A2)
08:32, Latvala O. (2 min),
08:32, Wright C. (2 min),
09:56, 1 - 1, Kos O. (G), Quenneville P. (A), Borg E. (A2)
10:23, Pyke G. (2 min),
14:15, Kiiskinen J. (Penalty Shot),
15:17, Pyke G. (2 min),
18:46, Bjorkqvist K. (5 min),
18:46, Heikkinen I. (2 min),
18:46, Nikkila P. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
11:10, 2 - 1, Borg E. (G), Kos O. (A), Torok M. (A2)
14:40, Wright C. (2 min),
19:34, 3 - 1, Henman L. (G),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 4.

Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

HPK is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Ilves has had a series of away games.

Recently, HPK has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ilves is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 63:51. (average 3.2:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:28. (average 3:2.8).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 53.71%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	TPS - Ilves	1:4 ✺
06.03.26	Ilves - Tappara	4:3 OT ✺
28.02.26	KooKoo - Ilves	5:1 ✺
25.02.26	Pelicans - Ilves	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	KalPa - Ilves	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLLW
- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	HPK - Kärpät	6:3 ✺
06.03.26	HPK - Kärpät	3:2 OT ✺
28.02.26	SaiPa - HPK	0:3 ✺
27.02.26	HPK - SaiPa	1:5 ✺
19.02.26	HPK - KalPa	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
26.12.25	HPK - Ilves	3:8
04.12.25	Ilves - HPK	3:2
15.11.25	HPK - Ilves	2:3 OT
27.02.25	Ilves - HPK	0:4
14.02.25	HPK - Ilves	2:3
22.10.24	Ilves - HPK	1:4
20.09.24	HPK - Ilves	0:4

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