Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday


	Kärpät U20		HPK U20

	1	X	2
	2.35	4.5	1.95
	2.25	3.72	2.38
	2.35	4.06	2.4	Watch
	2.5	4	2.1
	2.32	3.9	2.38
	2.4	4.4	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.62)	4.1 ↑ (4.03)	2.22 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät U20
37.9%

Draw
21.8%

HPK U20
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

22.8%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

23.1%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

HPK U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät U20 than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK U20 than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Kärpät U20 - HPK U20 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. HPK U20 (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:43, 0 - 1, Maatta A. (G), Kaikkonen T. (A), Laine P. (A2)
04:47, 1 - 1, Jurvelin L. (G),
2nd Period (3 - 1)
02:38, 2 - 1, Pinola E. (G), Mattila U. (A), Martinmaki K. (A2)
13:50, 2 - 2, Fagerstrom V. (G), Laamanen E. (A), Lehtonen O. (A2)
16:17, 3 - 2, Jung S. (G), Pietila B. (A),
18:40, 4 - 2, Karassaari J. (G), Jurvelin L. (A), Kylmala O. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
01:58, 5 - 2, Kylmala O. (G), Karassaari J. (A), Jurvelin L. (A2)
06:19, 5 - 3, Nummela T. (G), Laamanen E. (A), Viitaluoma V. (A2)
19:52, 6 - 3, Karassaari J. (G), Ruotsalainen V. (A), Martinmaki K. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

HPK U20 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät U20 won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 76:49. (average 3.8:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät U20 won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 43:30. (average 3.9:2.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät U20 - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.13%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpät U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
07.12.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - Kärpät U20	4:2 ✺
03.12.25	RoKi U20 - Kärpät U20	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Kärpät U20 - Tappara U20	5:2 ✺
28.11.25	Kärpät U20 - Tappara U20	4:5 ✺
22.11.25	Tappara U20 - Kärpät U20	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWLL
- HPK U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
03.12.25	HPK U20 - Jokerit U20	5:6 ✺
29.11.25	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - HPK U20	5:1 ✺
28.11.25	HPK U20 - RoKi U20	3:2 ✺
23.11.25	Ässät U20 - HPK U20	1:3 ✺
22.11.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - HPK U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
04.10.25	HPK U20 - Kärpät U20	6:1
14.09.24	Kärpät U20 - HPK U20	2:7
23.02.24	Kärpät U20 - HPK U20	4:5 OT
26.01.24	Kärpät U20 - HPK U20	1:5
24.11.23	HPK U20 - Kärpät U20	1:4
16.10.22	Kärpät U20 - HPK U20	1:2
19.03.22	Kärpät U20 - HPK U20	7:2

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