Match Info

Liiga

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Olvi Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	KalPa		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	1.87	4.2	3.3
	1.88	4.21	3.53
	1.86	4.55	3.33	Watch
	1.92	4.33	3.21	Watch
	1.95	4.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.86)	4.31 ↓ (4.55)	3.31 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa
49.7%

Draw
21.9%

Kärpät
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

20.8%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

20.4%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

The chances for Kärpät have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

KalPa - Kärpät Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kärpät (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
40. Lekkas S. (G)	31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
6. Westerlund F.	61. Salmela T.
55. Lappalainen L.	47. Bjork M. (A)
70. Hartikainen T. (A)	13. Junttila J.
28. Rissanen J. (C)	11. Virta P. (A)
9. Maenpaa J.	27. Tardif B.
Line 2
90. Salmela S.	25. Paaso A.
97. Kanak L.	55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
22. Borchardt C.	93. Kantner M.
71. Curry P.	33. Hirvonen R.
17. Korhonen B. (A)	73. Erholtz E.
Line 3
52. Tornberg A.	26. Tichacek J.
7. Mononen V.	65. Nutivaara M.
20. Klemetti A.	8. Tieksola T.
12. Saarelainen J.	19. Tikka T.
42. Kapanen K.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
Line 4
3. Karlsson A.	39. Juusola V.
16. Okany A.	22. Nikupeteri O.
14. Lantta J.	28. Ojantakanen K.
41. Kononen J.	29. Alasiurua A.
Substitutes
31. Kerkola P. (G)	32. Sandstrom F. (G)
Coaches
. Tervonen S.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:46, Curry P. (2 min),
04:29, Kanak L. (2 min),
04:29, Tikka T. (2 min),
05:40, Curry P. (2 min),
07:53, Tieksola T. (2 min),
09:04, 1 - 0, Klemetti A. (G), Korhonen B. (A),
13:23, Tichacek J. (2 min),
19:31, (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
03:42, Hartikainen T. (2 min),
06:20, Ohtamaa A. (2 min),
12:48, Rissanen J. (2 min),
15:00, Virta P. (2 min),
16:03, 2 - 0, Lappalainen L. (G), Maenpaa J. (A), Rissanen J. (A2)
16:03, Virta P. (2 min),
19:29, Bjork M. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
17:02, 3 - 0, Lantta J. (G), Kononen J. (A), Kapanen K. (A2)
17:35, 3 - 1, Ohtamaa A. (G), Kantner M. (A), Juusola V. (A2)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 4.

Recent performances by KalPa have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kärpät is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kärpät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

KalPa could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that KalPa will win today's game, with odds of 1.94.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 74:60. (average 3.7:3).

Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 49:35. (average 4.5:3.2).

Last Results with these Odds

KalPa - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.83%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.10.25	KalPa - Kärpät	6:4 ✺
22.10.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - KalPa	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	KalPa - KooKoo	4:2 ✺
17.10.25	HIFK - KalPa	3:2 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
15.10.25	KalPa - EC KAC	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
24.10.25	KalPa - Kärpät	6:4 ✺
18.10.25	Kärpät - HPK	1:2 ✺
17.10.25	Kärpät - HPK	5:2 ✺
11.10.25	SaiPa - Kärpät	4:3 ✺
10.10.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kärpät	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
24.10.25	KalPa - Kärpät	6:4
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
21.08.25	KalPa - Kärpät	4:7
Finnish SM-liiga
22.02.25	KalPa - Kärpät	7:5
21.02.25	KalPa - Kärpät	4:3
19.10.24	Kärpät - KalPa	1:2
18.10.24	Kärpät - KalPa	4:5 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
15.08.24	Kärpät - KalPa	2:3 penalties

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