Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	KalPa U20		Ilves U20

	1	X	2
	2.1	4.4	2.2
	3.21	4.34	1.84	Watch
	2	4.2	2.87
	1.95	4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.01)	4.24 ↑ (4.2)	2.43 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa U20
40%

Draw
21.9%

Ilves U20
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

21.9%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

21.9%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that KalPa U20's form might have worsened.

Ilves U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves U20's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa U20 than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for KalPa U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves U20 than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves U20, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

KalPa U20 - Ilves U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
03:51, 0 - 1, Frolo J. (G), Poikela M. (A), Kuukasjarvi R. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
12:03, 0 - 2, Harkimo D. (G), Frolo J. (A), Pelkonen L. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 3)
00:46, 0 - 3, Pelkonen L. (G), Tukio O. (A),
07:09, 0 - 4, Karttu K. (G), Laitinen J. (A), Rinne R. (A2)
14:24, 1 - 4, Pakarinen R. (G), Happonen E. (A),
18:01, 1 - 5, Harkimo D. (G), Karttu K. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa U20 won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

KalPa U20 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

KalPa U20 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, KalPa U20 won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 58:40. (average 3.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, KalPa U20 won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 36:18. (average 4.5:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
24.10.25	HPK U20 - KalPa U20	5:4 penalties ✺
18.10.25	KalPa U20 - HPK U20	4:3 penalties ✺
17.10.25	KalPa U20 - KooKoo U20	6:5 ✺
12.10.25	Kärpät U20 - KalPa U20	6:3 ✺
11.10.25	KalPa U20 - RoKi U20	8:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLW
- Ilves U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
24.10.25	JYP U20 - Ilves U20	4:3 ✺
18.10.25	Tappara U20 - Ilves U20	2:3 penalties ✺
17.10.25	Ilves U20 - Kiekko-Espoo U20	4:1 ✺
11.10.25	Ilves U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	2:3 OT ✺
10.10.25	Ilves U20 - HPK U20	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
15.11.24	Ilves U20 - KalPa U20	4:2
19.10.24	KalPa U20 - Ilves U20	4:2
06.01.24	KalPa U20 - Ilves U20	5:2
17.09.23	Ilves U20 - KalPa U20	1:2 penalties
28.10.22	Ilves U20 - KalPa U20	2:4
01.10.21	KalPa U20 - Ilves U20	7:0
23.10.20	Ilves U20 - KalPa U20	1:5

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