Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	KalPa U20		TPS U20

	1	X	2
	2.33	4.02	2.41
	2.39	3.74	2.49	Watch
	2.3	4.1	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.29)	3.95 ↓ (4.06)	2.43 (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa U20
39.1%

Draw
23.2%

TPS U20
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

22.5%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

21.9%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

TPS U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa U20 than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS U20 than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

KalPa U20 - TPS U20 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
06:15, 0 - 1, Wahlroos O. (G), Nummelin R. (A), Kaukonen J. (A2)
3rd Period (4 - 1)
00:25, 1 - 1, Pakarinen R. (G), Kekarainen S. (A), Korkiakoski T. (A2)
01:17, 2 - 1, Timofejev D. (G), Pulkkanen A. (A), Happonen E. (A2)
06:59, 3 - 1, Pakarinen R. (G), Timofejev D. (A), Pulkkanen A. (A2)
15:07, 3 - 2, Paganus T. (G), Orelma P. (A), Pinomaki B. (A2)
19:31, 4 - 2, Kekarainen S. (G), Korkiakoski T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa U20 won 3.

KalPa U20 is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, TPS U20 has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, KalPa U20 has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa U20 won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 66:69. (average 3.3:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, KalPa U20 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 3.1:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

TPS U20 - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 37.57%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.09.25	Ässät U20 - KalPa U20	6:3 ✺
20.09.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - KalPa U20	3:6 ✺
13.09.25	SaiPa U20 - KalPa U20	6:4 ✺
12.09.25	KalPa U20 - Kärpät U20	3:4 ✺
06.09.25	HPK U20 - KalPa U20	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLLL
- TPS U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
21.09.25	TPS U20 - KooKoo U20	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	TPS U20 - Kiekko-Espoo U20	2:3 ✺
13.09.25	TPS U20 - Ässät U20	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Jokerit U20 - TPS U20	2:4 ✺
06.09.25	Lukko U20 - TPS U20	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
20.12.24	KalPa U20 - TPS U20	4:3
22.09.24	TPS U20 - KalPa U20	4:5 penalties
17.02.24	TPS U20 - KalPa U20	2:1 penalties
08.12.23	KalPa U20 - TPS U20	5:2
21.10.23	TPS U20 - KalPa U20	7:6 OT
04.03.23	KalPa U20 - TPS U20	1:2 OT
21.01.23	TPS U20 - KalPa U20	4:2

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