Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Lukko U20		TPS U20

	1	X	2
	2.47	3.84	2.37	Watch
	2.38	3.9	2.3
	2.4	3.84	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.47)	3.86 ↑ (3.84)	2.33 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko U20
37.5%

Draw
23.5%

TPS U20
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

24%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26.5%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

TPS U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko U20 than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS U20 than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Lukko U20 - TPS U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
14:10, 0 - 1, Fugleberg P. (G), Lehtimaki J. (A), Kallio W. (A2)
16:47, 1 - 1, Sahlstedt E. (G), Kahkonen J. (A), Schwarz J. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
00:14, 2 - 1, Pulakka V. (G), Suominen J. (A), Kahkonen J. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 3)
05:02, 2 - 2, Paganus T. (G), Orelma P. (A), Lehtimaki J. (A2)
06:08, 2 - 3, Pinomaki B. (G),
13:04, 2 - 4, Termonen R. (G), Uusikartano R. (A), Paganus T. (A2)
16:10, 3 - 4, Pulakka V. (G), Schwarz J. (A), Lehtosaari V. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko U20 won 2.

Lukko U20 has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

TPS U20 is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

TPS U20 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko U20 won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 54:60. (average 2.7:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko U20 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 2.1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Lukko U20	11	7	1	0	3	35:25	23
11	TPS U20	11	3	0	4	4	30:41	13

Last Results with these Odds

TPS U20 - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.81%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
09.01.26	Jokerit U20 - Lukko U20	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Lukko U20 - Tappara U20	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	HIFK U20 - Lukko U20	2:5 ✺
19.12.25	Lukko U20 - Kiekko-Espoo U20	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	TPS U20 - Lukko U20	4:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LLWWW
- TPS U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
09.01.26	TPS U20 - Ässät U20	5:1 ✺
04.01.26	TPS U20 - Jokerit U20	4:0 ✺
03.01.26	TPS U20 - Kärpät U20	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Pelicans U20 - TPS U20	2:4 ✺
19.12.25	Mikkelin Jukurit U20 - TPS U20	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
13.12.25	TPS U20 - Lukko U20	4:5 OT
29.11.25	TPS U20 - Lukko U20	5:1
06.09.25	Lukko U20 - TPS U20	1:3
01.03.25	TPS U20 - Lukko U20	0:5
16.11.24	Lukko U20 - TPS U20	0:2
02.11.24	TPS U20 - Lukko U20	2:5
06.09.24	Lukko U20 - TPS U20	2:1 penalties

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