Match Info

National League - Round 4

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Cornèr Arena (Lugano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo


	Lugano		EV Zug

	1	X	2
	1.95	4.20	3.20	Watch
	2.00	4.20	3.00
	2.04	4.10	2.85
	2.17	3.87	2.84
	2.08	4.16	2.91	Watch
	2.14	3.80	2.80
	2.17	4.20	2.88	Watch
	2.06	4.10	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.99)	4.08 ↑ (4.02)	2.92 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lugano
45%

Draw
22.9%

EV Zug
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

23.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

24.7%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

EV Zug has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EV Zug than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Lugano - EV Zug Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
34. Schlegel N. (G)	30. Genoni L. (G)
22. Alatalo S.	16. Diaz R.
25. Muller M.	66. Sklenicka D.
17. Fazzini L.	90. Tatar T.
21. Sanford Z.	43. Kovar J. (C)
14. Canonica L.	40. Wingerli A.
Line 2
26. Aebischer D.	32. Bengtsson L.
9. Zanetti B.	3. Moverare J.
19. Kupari R.	9. Rohrer V.
97. Thurkauf C. (C)	88. Senteler S.
91. Olsson D.	15. Hofmann G.
Line 3
60. Thomson L.	65. Schneller E.
52. Peltonen J.	42. Geisser T.
12. Innala J.	8. Gredig R.
73. Shore N.	96. Egli C.
15. Lycksell O.	11. Petrovic N.
Line 4
11. Zanetti M.	14. Stadler L.
7. Tanner R.	37. Riva E.
10. Bertaggia A.	95. Lindemann C. S.
	61. Leuenberger S.
	86. Antenen R. N.
Substitutes
13. Peltonen A.	31. Croce M. (G)
37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)
Coaches
. Mitell T.	. Marjamaki L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
05:38, Gredig R. (2 min),
06:06, 0 - 1, Senteler S. (G), Rohrer V. (A),
19:11, Shore N. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
03:15, Thurkauf C. (2 min),
03:15, Rohrer V. (2 min),
09:08, 1 - 1, Fazzini L. (G), Sanford Z. (A), Aebischer D. (A2)
16:14, Rohrer V. (2 min),
19:34, Thurkauf C. (2 min),
19:51, 1 - 2, Kovar J. (G),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
03:32, 2 - 2, Bertaggia A. (G), Thurkauf C. (A),
04:06, Shore N. (2 min),
10:37, Senteler S. (2 min),
Overtime (1 - 0)
01:28, 3 - 2, Aebischer D. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 3.

Lugano has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

EV Zug is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Lugano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, EV Zug has had a run of games away from home.

Lugano is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lugano has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 59:61 (averaging 3:3.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lugano against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 28:32 goals (averaging 2.8:3.2 per game).

Outrights of Swiss National League Hockey for now

Zug: 8.49% Lugano: 4.67%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	37:33	15
12	Zug	6	3	0	1	2	22:14	10

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.93%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

EV Zug - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.84%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
18.09.26	EHC Kloten - Lugano	5:2 ✺
15.09.26	Lugano - Genève-Servette	6:3 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
10.09.26	EHC Kloten - Lugano	2:1 OT ✺
04.09.26	Rapperswil-Jona Lakers - Lugano	3:7 ✺
29.08.26	Lugano - Davos	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLWL
- EV Zug
Swiss National League Hockey
19.09.26	Davos - EV Zug	2:6 ✺
15.09.26	Lausanne HC - EV Zug	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
10.09.26	SCL Tigers - EV Zug	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	ERC Ingolstadt - EV Zug	3:4 AET ✺
29.08.26	EV Zug - Nurnberg Ice Tigers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
09.03.26	Lugano - EV Zug	4:1
14.01.26	EV Zug - Lugano	2:3
21.11.25	EV Zug - Lugano	2:3
12.09.25	Lugano - EV Zug	1:2
31.01.25	EV Zug - Lugano	7:4
20.12.24	Lugano - EV Zug	5:2
22.10.24	Lugano - EV Zug	1:5

Upcoming Matches