Match Info

Liiga

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		Ässät

	1	X	2
	1.91	4.25	3.20
	1.91	4.10	3.20
	2.00	4.10	3.10
	1.90	4.04	3.35
	1.96	4.09	3.24	Watch
	1.88	4.00	3.30
	1.88	4.25	3.38	Watch
	1.96	3.95	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.82)	4.1 ↓ (4.19)	3.24 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
48.5%

Draw
22.8%

Ässät
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

22.3%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

23.5%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Ässät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Lukko - Ässät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Raanta A. (G)	30. Bednar J. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	79. Nikkila P. (A)
27. Seppala P.	61. Jurgens C.
16. Beaucage A.	47. Pinard S.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	10. Hillis C.
18. Liedes H. (C)	34. Doucet A.
Line 2
15. Tukiainen J.	37. Maatta R. (C)
43. Valila A.	7. Pulli J.
87. Saarela A. (A)	18. Ylitalo O.
91. Robert F.	19. Juhola P.
25. Saarela A.	36. Bjorkqvist K.
Line 3
19. Floris J.	55. Riihinen P.
56. Olsson A.	80. Nurmi P.
23. Trakht D.	8. Olofsson J.
29. Vanninen A.	14. Sebok B.
90. Hamalainen L.	63. Kostilainen S.
Line 4
48. Ikonen H.	60. Soini S.
24. Krannila J.	44. Skinnari A.
47. Haapanen T.	72. Ojantakanen K.
	26. Kim A.
Substitutes
57. Mensonen J.	33. Taponen R. (G)
30. Salonen D. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
14:35, 0 - 1, Bjorkqvist K. (G), Ylitalo O. (A), Juhola P. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
04:11, 0 - 2, Pinard S. (G), Nikkila P. (A), Nurmi P. (A2)
05:51, 1 - 2, Ikonen H. (G), Krannila J. (A), Stenqvist J. (A2)
13:51, 1 - 3, Riihinen P. (G), Sebok B. (A), Kostilainen S. (A2)
19:03, 2 - 3, Ruohomaa M. (G), Liedes H. (A), Beaucage A. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
03:32, Skinnari A. (2 min),
07:06, Tukiainen J. (2 min),
07:19, 2 - 4, Pinard S. (G), Hillis C. (A), Kostilainen S. (A2)
11:04, Saarela A. (2 min),
17:31, 2 - 5, Maatta R. (G), Juhola P. (A),

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 8th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 1.

Lukko arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Ässät has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Lukko has faced a series of away games on the road.

Lukko is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Lukko in today's match, at odds of 1.97.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lukko has recorded 13 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 71:46 (averaging 3.6:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lukko against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 35:19 goals (averaging 3.9:2.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 26.39%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
02.10.26	Ässät - Lukko	0:3 ✺
26.09.26	KalPa - Lukko	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Lukko - Tappara	3:2 ✺
22.09.26	HPK - Lukko	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWWW
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
02.10.26	Ässät - Lukko	0:3 ✺
26.09.26	HPK - Ässät	5:4 OT ✺
25.09.26	Ässät - SaiPa	0:5 ✺
23.09.26	SaiPa - Ässät	1:2 penalties ✺
19.09.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
02.10.26	Ässät - Lukko	0:3
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
21.08.26	Ässät - Lukko	8:3
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	Lukko - Ässät	1:1
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	Lukko - Ässät	3:5
23.01.26	Ässät - Lukko	2:1 OT
13.12.25	Lukko - Ässät	8:3
12.12.25	Ässät - Lukko	1:5

Lukko - Ässät: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide