Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		JYP

	1	X	2
	2.05	4.5	2.65
	1.95	4.10	3.10
	2.04	4.3	2.95	Watch
	2.12	3.87	2.94
	2.1	3.99	2.94	Watch
	2.07	3.75	2.85
	2.08	4.3	2.86	Watch
	2.08	4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.18)	4.1 ↑ (4.05)	2.89 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
45.1%

Draw
22.7%

JYP
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

23.2%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

27.1%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

JYP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lukko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JYP than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Lukko - JYP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Salonen D. (G)	34. Setanen O. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	18. Jokinen R.
27. Seppala P.	31. Peltola E. (A)
24. Krannila J.	77. Tukiainen L.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	28. Lassila J. (C)
18. Liedes H. (C)	61. Huovila S.
Line 2
34. Viitasalo N.	63. Bourque T.
43. Valila A.	3. Arola J.
16. Beaucage A.	39. Ojantakanen V.
91. Robert F.	8. Newkirk R.
25. Saarela A.	82. Pesonen H. (A)
Line 3
96. Harpur C.	32. Setkov M.
56. Olsson A.	4. Liikonen V.
23. Trakht D.	92. Vidgren A.
29. Vanninen A.	7. True A.
90. Hamalainen L.	40. Torgersson D.
Line 4
15. Tukiainen J.	21. Vuontisvaara O.
48. Ikonen H. (A)	71. Puustinen J.
75. Virtanen S.	17. Makinen O.
47. Haapanen T.	27. Korjus J.
Substitutes
57. Mensonen J.	16. Liljamo T.
32. Raanta A. (G)	35. Salminen O. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Matikainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 4)
02:25, 0 - 1, Tukiainen L. (G), Lassila J. (A),
03:14, Vidgren A. (2 min),
03:47, Peltola E. (2 min),
06:18, Vuontisvaara O. (2 min),
07:41, Makinen O. (2 min),
08:26, 0 - 2, True A. (G), Vuontisvaara O. (A), Bourque T. (A2)
09:18, Robert F. (2 min),
10:35, 0 - 3, Pesonen H. (G), Ojantakanen V. (A), Arola J. (A2)
17:04, Virtanen S. (2 min),
17:04, Liikonen V. (2 min),
18:27, 0 - 4, Newkirk R. (G), Pesonen H. (A), True A. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
00:01, Salonen D. ↓, Raanta A. ↑,
3rd Period (0 - 1)
08:41, 0 - 5, Huovila S. (G), Tukiainen L. (A), Jokinen R. (A2)
15:18, Lassila J. (2 min),
15:18, Trakht D. (5 min),
19:46, Beaucage A. (2 min),
19:46, Beaucage A. (2 min),
19:46, Liikonen V. (2 min),
19:46, Newkirk R. (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 3.

Lukko has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, JYP has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

JYP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, JYP has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 76:51. (average 3.8:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 36:19. (average 3.6:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	JYP	10	7	0	0	3	30:25	21
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.16%, but this team recently wins 32% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
05.09.26	Lukko - Jokerit	7:2 ✺
01.09.26	Lukko - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	HPK - Lukko	4:3 penalties ✺
21.08.26	Ässät - Lukko	8:3 ✺
14.08.26	TPS - Lukko	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLLL
- JYP Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
05.09.26	Kärpät - JYP	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	KalPa - JYP	5:2 ✺
20.08.26	JYP - Kärpät	3:0 ✺
15.08.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - JYP	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	SaiPa - JYP	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
03.02.26	Lukko - JYP	5:2
27.01.26	JYP - Lukko	4:3
21.11.25	JYP - Lukko	4:3 OT
10.10.25	Lukko - JYP	4:2
12.03.25	Lukko - JYP	3:2 OT
28.12.24	JYP - Lukko	2:5
13.11.24	JYP - Lukko	2:5

Lukko - JYP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide