Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Lukko U20		KalPa U20

	1	X	2
	2	4.3	2.4
	2.25	4.29	2.45	Watch
	2.15	4	2.5
	2.25	3.98	2.42
	2.1	4.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.09)	4.16 ↑ (4.03)	2.44 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko U20
41.7%

Draw
21.5%

KalPa U20
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

22.8%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

24.4%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

KalPa U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko U20 than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lukko U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa U20 than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for KalPa U20, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lukko U20 - KalPa U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
05:42, 1 - 0, Lehtosaari V. (G), Vuorinen V. (A), Kahkonen J. (A2)
16:54, 2 - 0, Johansson S. (G), Lehtosaari V. (A), Nordman L. (A2)
17:16, 2 - 1, Olli T. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
02:54, 3 - 1, Kahkonen J. (G), Sahlstedt E. (A), Lehtosaari V. (A2)
04:21, 3 - 2, Miilunpohja R. (G), Pulkkanen A. (A), Hirvonen D. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
01:37, 3 - 3, Miilunpohja R. (G), Pakarinen R. (A), Hirvonen D. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 2)
1, Korkiakoski T. (Penalty Shot),
1, Vatjus M. (Penalty Shot),
2, Pakarinen R. (Penalty Shot),
2, Lehtosaari V. (Penalty Shot),
3, Timofejev D. (Penalty Shot),
3, Vechet P. (Penalty Shot),
4, Miilunpohja R. (Penalty Shot),
4, Tukiainen J. (Penalty Shot),
5, Pulkkanen A. (Penalty Shot),
5, Julkunen A. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko U20 won 4.

Recent form of Lukko U20 has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

KalPa U20 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko U20 won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 66:60. (average 3.3:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko U20 won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:34. (average 2.8:3.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Lukko U20	11	7	1	0	3	35:25	23
9	KalPa U20	10	2	5	0	3	33:31	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
16.01.26	Lukko U20 - Pelicans U20	0:3 ✺
10.01.26	Lukko U20 - TPS U20	3:4 ✺
09.01.26	Jokerit U20 - Lukko U20	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Lukko U20 - Tappara U20	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	HIFK U20 - Lukko U20	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW
- KalPa U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
16.01.26	TPS U20 - KalPa U20	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Ilves U20 - KalPa U20	7:5 ✺
04.01.26	KalPa U20 - HPK U20	4:3 penalties ✺
03.01.26	KooKoo U20 - KalPa U20	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	KalPa U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
01.11.25	KalPa U20 - Lukko U20	1:6
31.03.25	KalPa U20 - Lukko U20	3:5
30.03.25	KalPa U20 - Lukko U20	2:5
28.03.25	Lukko U20 - KalPa U20	2:4
27.03.25	Lukko U20 - KalPa U20	2:0
10.01.25	KalPa U20 - Lukko U20	0:2
12.10.24	Lukko U20 - KalPa U20	6:2

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