Match Info

VHL

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Kuznetsk Metallurgists (Novokuznetsk)


	Metallurg Novokuznetsk		Dizel Penza

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.64	4.64	Watch
	1.52	4.4	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.76)	4.52 ↑ (4.13)	4.52 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metallurg Novokuznetsk
59.4%

Draw
20.3%

Dizel Penza
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

22.2%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

23%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metallurg Novokuznetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Metallurg Novokuznetsk's performance.

Dizel Penza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dizel Penza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metallurg Novokuznetsk than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Metallurg Novokuznetsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dizel Penza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Dizel Penza Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Metallurg N will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
73. Podskrebalin N. (G)	27. Arzamastsev A. (G)
47. Churkin V.	68. Rudakov G.
51. Mineyev M.	75. Pogorishny O. (A)
17. Sokolov D. (A)	81. Kalmykov D.
40. Apalkov D. (C)	11. Makhanovsky P. (A)
59. Perevalov A.	71. Kolmykov M.
Line 2
54. Chibrikov I.	7. Spitsenko K.
77. Vinogradov A.	6. Lukichyov A.
88. Shalagin M.	23. Sidlyarov D. (C)
21. Kodola V.	47. Bobylyov V.
33. Shablovsky Z.	97. Borisenkov A.
Line 3
8. Naumov V.	98. Lyulko V.
75. Starikov L.	83. Sukhov S.
97. Ovchinnikov D.	41. Lukin V.
24. Khrapov F.	95. Pochivalov D.
10. Sheshin D. (A)	10. Popov D.
Line 4
53. Shchemerov A.	77. Bannikov A.
14. Mikhalyov V.	87. Karapetyan D.
50. Kurbatov V.	69. Boluchevsky A.
89. Guslistov N.	34. Larichev V.
Substitutes
94. Bogdanov N. (G)	31. Kudashev D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 2)
04:55, 1 - 0, Khrapov F. (G), Sheshin D. (A), Ovchinnikov D. (A2)
07:13, 2 - 0, Sheshin D. (G), Ovchinnikov D. (A), Khrapov F. (A2)
16:56, 2 - 1, Sidlyarov D. (G), Bobylyov V. (A), Rudakov G. (A2)
17:18, 2 - 2, Lukin V. (G), Popov D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
01:01, 2 - 3, Borisenkov A. (G), Karapetyan D. (A), Makhanovsky P. (A2)
08:08, 3 - 3, Perevalov A. (G), Mineyev M. (A), Sokolov D. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
15:50, 4 - 3, Apalkov D. (G), Sokolov D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metallurg N won 3.

Metallurg N has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Dizel has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Dizel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Metallurg N is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Metallurg N will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Metallurg N won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 69:33. (average 3.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Metallurg N won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 30:15. (average 3.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
10	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	12	6	0	3	3	22:14	15
16	Dizel	11	3	2	2	4	24:24	12

Last Results with these Odds

Metallurg Novokuznetsk - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 52.02%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Metallurg Novokuznetsk
VHL
09.01.26	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Ryazan	4:2 ✺
07.01.26	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - AKM	5:2 ✺
27.12.25	Bars Kazan - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:6 ✺
25.12.25	CSK VVS Samara - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	0:1 penalties ✺
23.12.25	Chelny - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWWW
- Dizel Penza
VHL
09.01.26	Dynamo-Altay - Dizel Penza	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Kristall Saratov - Dizel Penza	5:0 ✺
24.12.25	Dizel Penza - Buran Voronezh	6:3 ✺
22.12.25	Dizel Penza - Rostov	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Dizel Penza - Tambov	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
11.11.25	Dizel Penza - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	0:3
01.03.25	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Dizel Penza	4:2
23.09.24	Dizel Penza - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	0:3
17.12.23	Dizel Penza - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	3:1
30.10.23	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Dizel Penza	0:3
05.01.23	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Dizel Penza	3:2 OT
16.10.22	Dizel Penza - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:3

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