Match Info

NHL

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: UBS Arena (Elmont, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Live 3
Germany	NHL.tv
Mexico	Disney+
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Sweden	Viaplay
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN USA, ESPN+, MSG Sportsnet, MSG, NESN
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	New York Islanders		Tampa Bay Lightning

	1	X	2
	3.45	4.00	1.86	Watch
	3.25	4.00	1.91
	3.35	4.10	1.97
	3.23	4.26	1.97
	3.25	4.3	1.95	Watch
	3.20	4.20	1.96
	3.27	4.26	2.04
	3.10	4.10	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.79)	4.15 ↓ (4.18)	1.95 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York Islanders
28.9%

Draw
22.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

22.6%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

23.4%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York Islanders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York Islanders than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for New York Islanders, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY Islanders won 3.

In recent outings, NY Islanders has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tampa Bay is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tampa Bay holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for NY Islanders: Barzal M. (Knee Injury) Romanov A. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Tampa Bay: Gourde Y. (Hip Injury) James D. (Broken Hand) Lilleberg E. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for NY Islanders: Horvat B. (Upper-Body Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, NY Islanders has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 45:65 (averaging 2.3:3.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for NY Islanders against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 32:30 goals (averaging 2.9:2.7 per game).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.31% New York Islanders: 0.6%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York Islanders
NHL
08.10.26	New York Islanders - Chicago Blackhawks	4:1 ✺
06.10.26	New York Rangers - New York Islanders	5:2 ✺
03.10.26	New York Islanders - New Jersey Devils	6:0 ✺
30.09.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Islanders	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	New York Islanders - New Jersey Devils	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLL
- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
08.10.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Minnesota Wild	3:2 ✺
05.10.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	4:1 ✺
03.10.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Washington Capitals	3:1 ✺
01.10.26	New York Rangers - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:1 ✺
26.09.26	Florida Panthers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
13.12.25	New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 penalties
06.12.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Islanders	0:2
02.12.25	New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:1
01.04.25	New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:4
29.03.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Islanders	5:3
01.02.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Islanders	2:3 OT
30.03.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - New York Islanders	4:1

New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide