Match Info

AHL

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: H-E-B Center at Cedar Park (Cedar Park, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Texas Stars		Ontario Reign

	1	X	2
	3	4.2	1.87	Watch
	3.05	4.05	1.98
	3.12	4.18	1.96	Watch
	3	4	1.91
	3.13	4.1	1.91	Watch
	2.85	3.85	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.1)	4.06 ↓ (4.15)	1.94 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Texas Stars
30.3%

Draw
22.5%

Ontario Reign
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

22.4%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

23.4%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Texas Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Ontario Reign has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Texas Stars than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Texas Stars - Ontario Reign Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Tiefensee A. (G)	29. Copley P. (G)
27. Becker J.	59. Alexandrov N.
5. Bergsland T.	58. Bolduc S.
3. Bertucci T.	24. Booth A.
21. Chisholm S.	91. Brown L.
32. Hanas C.	8. Chromiak M.
19. Hughes C. (A)	17. Connors K.
26. Karow M.	37. Doty J. (A)
4. Krys L.	55. Dvorak J.
17. Lind K. (A)	21. Gawdin G. (A)
20. Martino A.	81. Guttman C.
25. McDonald K.	27. Hicketts J. (C)
16. McKenzie C. (C)	46. Isogai K.
24. Punnett C.	86. Jamsen A.
11. Scott H.	19. Kirsanov K.
13. Seminoff M.	71. Pinelli F.
38. Shlaine A.	10. Salin O.
40. Stranges A.	78. Wright J.
2. Taylor T.	13. Ziemmer K.
Substitutes
1. Poirier R. (G)	1. Portillo E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
08:10, 1 - 0, Shlaine A. (G), Krys L. (A), Seminoff M. (A2)
14:32, 1 - 1, Guttman C. (G), Connors K. (A), Chromiak M. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
04:37, 2 - 1, Hughes C. (G), Taylor T. (A), Scott H. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
18:54, 3 - 1, Hanas C. (G), Karow M. (A), Lind K. (A2)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Texas won 2.

In recent matches, Texas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ontario is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ontario may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ontario has had a series of away games.

Ontario might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Texas won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 61:61. (average 3.1:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Texas won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:30. (average 3.2:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ontario Reign - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 47.64%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Texas Stars
AHL
17.01.26	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	3:4 ✺
14.01.26	Texas Stars - Coachella Valley Firebirds	3:6 ✺
13.01.26	Texas Stars - Coachella Valley Firebirds	2:5 ✺
10.01.26	Chicago Wolves - Texas Stars	1:3 ✺
09.01.26	Grand Rapids Griffins - Texas Stars	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLLWW
- Ontario Reign
AHL
17.01.26	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	3:4 ✺
14.01.26	Colorado Eagles - Ontario Reign	3:4 penalties ✺
13.01.26	Colorado Eagles - Ontario Reign	3:6 ✺
11.01.26	Bakersfield Condors - Ontario Reign	3:0 ✺
09.01.26	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	5:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
17.01.26	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	3:4
09.12.25	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	6:3
30.11.25	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	1:4
19.03.25	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	1:4
18.03.25	Texas Stars - Ontario Reign	5:2
03.12.24	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	3:5
29.11.24	Ontario Reign - Texas Stars	4:0

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