Match Info

NHL

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh, PA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Pittsburgh Penguins		Tampa Bay Lightning

	1	X	2
	2.9	4.2	2.1	Watch
	2.86	4.17	2.16
	2.91	4.31	2.1	Watch
	2.88	4.33	2.1
	2.92	4.31	2.19
	2.9	4	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.89)	4.22 ↓ (4.28)	2.13 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pittsburgh Penguins
32.9%

Draw
22.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

22.1%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

23.2%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pittsburgh Penguins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Pittsburgh Penguins - Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Pittsburgh will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Tampa Bay will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Pittsburgh (votes: 4 - 50%). Tampa Bay (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
37. Silovs A. (G)	88. Vasilevski A. (G)
58. Letang K. (A)	43. Raddysh D.
77. Kulak B.	90. Moser J.J.
17. Rust B.	86. Kucherov N. (A)
87. Crosby S. (C)	71. Cirelli A. (A)
67. Rakell R.	38. Hagel B.
Line 2
75. Clifton C.	81. Cernak E.
5. Shea R.	51. D'Astous C.
59. Chinakhov Y.	59. Guentzel J. (A)
18. Novak T.	17. James D.
71. Malkin E. (A)	93. Goncalves G.
Line 3
3. St.Ivany J.	24. Crozier M.
28. Wotherspoon P.	67. Carlile D.
16. Brazeau J.	29. Holmberg P.
81. Kindel B.	37. Gourde Y.
39. Mantha A.	28. Girgensons Z.
Line 4
55. Acciari N.	22. Bjorkstrand O.
46. Lizotte B.	62. Finley J.
19. Dewar C.	20. Paul N.
Substitutes
74. Skinner S. (G)	31. Johansson J. (G)
Coaches
. Muse D.	. Cooper J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
01:54, Kucherov N. (2 min),
15:17, Kucherov N. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
02:49, Cernak E. (2 min),
09:40, Clifton C. (2 min),
12:16, Crosby S. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
03:10, Clifton C. (5 min),
03:10, Cirelli A. (2 min),
03:10, Cirelli A. (5 min),
03:10, Clifton C. (5 min),
14:13, 0 - 1, Moser J.J. (G), Gourde Y. (A), Girgensons Z. (A2)
17:44, 1 - 1, Malkin E. (G), Letang K. (A),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 2)
1, Rakell R. (Penalty Shot),
1, Goncalves G. (Penalty Shot),
2, Crosby S. (Penalty Shot),
2, Guentzel J. (Penalty Shot),
3, Chinakhov Y. (Penalty Shot),
3, Kucherov N. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pittsburgh won 2.

Recent performances by Pittsburgh have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tampa Bay is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Pittsburgh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Pittsburgh: Hallander F. (Leg Injury) McGroarty R. (Concussion)

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Elbow Injury) Lilleberg E. (Injury) McDonagh R. (Injury) Sabourin S. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Pittsburgh: Rust B. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pittsburgh won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 70:65. (average 3.5:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pittsburgh won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:32. (average 3.6:3.2).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22% Pittsburgh Penguins: 1.18%

Last Results with these Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.7%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.22%, but this team recently wins 68% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
11.01.26	Boston Bruins - Pittsburgh Penguins	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Calgary Flames	1:2 ✺
08.01.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - New Jersey Devils	4:1 ✺
04.01.26	Columbus Blue Jackets - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:5 OT ✺
03.01.26	Detroit Red Wings - Pittsburgh Penguins	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLWWW
- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
12.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	1:5 ✺
10.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:7 ✺
06.01.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche	4:2 ✺
03.01.26	San Jose Sharks - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:7 ✺
01.01.26	Los Angeles Kings - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
04.12.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:4
25.03.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Pittsburgh Penguins	6:1
12.01.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:5
19.11.24	Pittsburgh Penguins - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:3 OT
06.04.24	Pittsburgh Penguins - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:4
06.12.23	Tampa Bay Lightning - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:1
30.11.23	Tampa Bay Lightning - Pittsburgh Penguins	2:4

Pittsburgh Penguins - Tampa Bay Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide