Match Info

NHL

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia, PA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Philadelphia Flyers		Tampa Bay Lightning

	1	X	2
	3	4.2	2.05	Watch
	2.94	4.19	2.11
	3.11	4.33	2	Watch
	3	4	2.1
	2.97	4.32	2.09
	2.95	4.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.89)	4.22 ↓ (4.28)	2.07 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philadelphia Flyers
31.7%

Draw
22.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

22.1%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

23.2%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philadelphia Flyers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Philadelphia Flyers than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	15.4%	69.2%

Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Philadelphia will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tampa Bay will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tampa Bay (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tampa Bay Lightning will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
80. Vladar D. (G)	31. Johansson J. (G)
6. Sanheim T. (A)	43. Raddysh D.
8. York C.	90. Moser J.J.
46. Zegras T.	86. Kucherov N. (A)
22. Dvorak C.	21. Point B.
39. Michkov M.	93. Goncalves G.
Line 2
55. Ristolainen R.	81. Cernak E.
24. Seeler N.	51. D'Astous C.
74. Tippett O.	59. Guentzel J. (A)
14. Couturier S. (C)	71. Cirelli A. (A)
52. Barkey D.	38. Hagel B.
Line 3
47. Juulsen N.	24. Crozier M.
36. Andrae E.	67. Carlile D.
91. Grundstrom C.	29. Holmberg P.
27. Cates N.	37. Gourde Y.
29. Grebyonkin N.	28. Girgensons Z.
Line 4
19. Hathaway G.	22. Bjorkstrand O.
18. Abols R.	17. James D.
44. Deslauriers N.	20. Paul N.
Substitutes
33. Ersson S. (G)	88. Vasilevski A. (G)
Coaches
. Tocchet R.	. Cooper J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
01:10, 0 - 1, Holmberg P. (G), Girgensons Z. (A), Gourde Y. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 3)
00:33, 0 - 2, Guentzel J. (G), Cernak E. (A), Hagel B. (A2)
04:06, Abols R. (2 min),
04:29, 0 - 3, Point B. (G), Bjorkstrand O. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
04:29, Sanheim T. (2 min),
04:29, Bjorkstrand O. (2 min),
05:40, 1 - 3, Dvorak C. (G),
07:39, Cernak E. (2 min),
13:01, Hagel B. (2 min),
16:18, D'Astous C. (2 min),
16:18, Konecny T. (2 min),
18:50, Seeler N. (2 min),
19:29, 1 - 4, Hagel B. (G), Raddysh D. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
19:59, Grebyonkin N. (2 min),
19:59, Gourde Y. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
03:46, Paul N. (5 min),
03:46, Crozier M. (5 min),
03:46, Crozier M. (10 min),
03:46, Abols R. (2 min),
03:46, Abols R. (5 min),
03:46, Grebyonkin N. (5 min),
03:46, Grebyonkin N. (10 min),
08:40, Hathaway G. (2 min),
10:36, Guentzel J. (2 min),
10:36, Konecny T. (2 min),
10:36, Konecny T. (10 min),
16:39, 1 - 5, Kucherov N. (G), Raddysh D. (A), Cirelli A. (A2)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 2.

Philadelphia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tampa Bay is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of away games.

Tampa Bay will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Philadelphia: Drysdale J. (Injury) Foerster T. (Upper-Body Injury) Konecny T. (Upper-Body Injury)

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Elbow Injury) Lilleberg E. (Injury) McDonagh R. (Injury) Sabourin S. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Philadelphia: Brink B. (Upper-Body Injury) Grundstrom C. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 41:75. (average 2.1:3.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Philadelphia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:39. (average 2.4:4.3).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22% Philadelphia Flyers: 1.29%

Last Results with these Odds

Philadelphia Flyers - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.7%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.22%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philadelphia Flyers
NHL
10.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:7 ✺
08.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:2 OT ✺
06.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Anaheim Ducks	5:2 ✺
03.01.26	Edmonton Oilers - Philadelphia Flyers	2:5 ✺
31.12.25	Calgary Flames - Philadelphia Flyers	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWWL
- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
10.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:7 ✺
06.01.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Colorado Avalanche	4:2 ✺
03.01.26	San Jose Sharks - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:7 ✺
01.01.26	Los Angeles Kings - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:5 ✺
31.12.25	Anaheim Ducks - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
10.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:7
24.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	3:0
17.03.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	2:0
13.03.25	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:3 penalties
07.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	1:2 penalties
09.03.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	7:0
27.02.24	Philadelphia Flyers - Tampa Bay Lightning	6:2

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