Match Info

AHL

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Providence Bruins		Belleville Senators

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.5	3.75	Watch
	1.68	4.5	3.8
	1.68	4.49	3.9
	1.67	4.59	3.98	Watch
	1.65	4.33	3.8
	1.68	4.56	3.95	Watch
	1.76	4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 (1.68)	4.42 ↓ (4.52)	3.81 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Providence Bruins
55%

Draw
20.8%

Belleville Senators
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

20.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

21%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Providence Bruins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Belleville Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Providence Bruins than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belleville Senators than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Providence will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. DiPietro M. (G)	35. Merilainen L. (G)
47. Abate J. (A)	5. Bongiovanni W.
17. Bancroft D.	16. Boucher T.
18. Blumel M.	13. Bourgault X.
38. Brown P. (C)	10. Daoust P.
42. Brunet F.	11. Donovan J.
23. Callahan M. (A)	8. Duarte M.
11. Duran R.	48. Gilbert D.
26. Farinacci J.	34. Halliday S.
72. Harrison B.	14. Harrington S.
22. Lysell F.	42. Hodgson H. (A)
10. Merkulov G.	43. Kaliyev A.
21. Poitras M.	15. Lycksell O.
8. Schmaltz J.	32. Pettersson O.
29. Soderstrom V.	22. Pilon G. (C)
6. Sweezey B.	19. Rees J.
27. Tufte R.	33. Thomson L. (A)
13. Wanner M.	44. Toure D.
86. Wolanin C.	26. Yakemchuk C.
Substitutes
33. Cavallin L. (G)	31. Parsons J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
00:27, 1 - 0, Harrison B. (G), Sweezey B. (A),
09:33, 1 - 1, Kaliyev A. (G), Daoust P. (A), Donovan J. (A2)
09:48, 2 - 1, Tufte R. (G), Blumel M. (A),
2nd Period (3 - 1)
09:43, 2 - 2, Lycksell O. (G),
14:47, 3 - 2, Blumel M. (G), Merkulov G. (A),
19:30, 4 - 2, Harrison B. (G), Merkulov G. (A), Soderstrom V. (A2)
19:54, 5 - 2, Abate J. (G), Schmaltz J. (A), Wolanin C. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Providence won 5.

Providence has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Belleville has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Providence may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Belleville has had a series of home games.

In this match, Providence is a strong favorite.

We predict that Providence will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Providence won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 52:41. (average 3.5:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Providence won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 3:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Providence Bruins - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.2%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Providence Bruins
AHL
15.02.26	Providence Bruins - Bridgeport Islanders	3:2 OT ✺
14.02.26	Bridgeport Islanders - Providence Bruins	2:4 ✺
07.02.26	Hartford Wolf Pack - Providence Bruins	1:2 penalties ✺
06.02.26	Providence Bruins - Hartford Wolf Pack	3:1 ✺
04.02.26	Bridgeport Islanders - Providence Bruins	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW
- Belleville Senators
AHL
18.02.26	Belleville Senators - Syracuse Crunch	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Belleville Senators - Hershey Bears	3:6 ✺
07.02.26	Belleville Senators - Syracuse Crunch	2:5 ✺
06.02.26	Syracuse Crunch - Belleville Senators	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

AHL
23.01.26	Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators	2:1 OT
30.11.25	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	4:6
29.11.25	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	3:6
12.04.25	Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators	4:3 OT
30.10.24	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	2:3 penalties
09.03.22	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	4:1
10.12.21	Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators	1:4

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