Match Info

AHL

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Providence Bruins		Rochester Americans

	1	X	2
	2.05	4	2.7	Watch
	2.08	4	2.85
	1.99	4.2	3.02
	2.06	4.18	2.9	Watch
	2	4	2.88
	1.98	4.26	3.04	Watch
	2.22	3.8	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.21)	4.06 ↑ (3.75)	2.86 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Providence Bruins
45%

Draw
22.7%

Rochester Americans
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

24.3%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

27.1%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Providence Bruins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Rochester Americans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Providence Bruins than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Providence Bruins that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochester Americans than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rochester Americans could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Zajicek S. (G)	27. Levi D. (G)
46. Abate J. (A)	15. Bayreuther G. (A)
18. Blumel M.	58. Belliveau I.
16. Brown C.	73. Costantini M.
38. Brown P. (C)	37. Douglas C.
42. Brunet F.	29. Fulp A.
23. Callahan M. (A)	91. Helenius K.
11. Duran R.	39. Jones Z.
9. Felix C.	8. Joshua J.
92. Hudson J.	16. Kuntar T.
22. Lysell F.	7. Leschyshyn J.
10. Merkulov G.	72. Meyer C. (A)
17. Mutter N.	57. Mrtka R.
21. Poitras M.	20. Nadeau O.
8. Schmaltz J.	19. Slaggert G.
29. Soderstrom V.	18. Strbak M.
27. Tufte R.	40. Valente L.
13. Wanner M.	24. Wahlberg A.
86. Wolanin C.	45. Warren B. (A)
Substitutes
30. DiPietro M. (G)	33. Ratzlaff S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
09:19, 1 - 0, Merkulov G. (G), Wolanin C. (A), Brown P. (A2)
14:26, 2 - 0, Lysell F. (G),
15:25, 2 - 1, Valente L. (G),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
12:04, 3 - 1, Blumel M. (G), Wolanin C. (A), Tufte R. (A2)
13', 4 - 1, Lysell F. (G), Merkulov G. (A), Brunet F. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 2)
12:48, 4 - 2, Helenius K. (G), Wahlberg A. (A),
13:22, 5 - 2, Brown P. (G), Tufte R. (A), Blumel M. (A2)
17:38, 6 - 2, Duran R. (G), Abate J. (A), Wanner M. (A2)
18:02, 6 - 3, Slaggert G. (G), Strbak M. (A), Fulp A. (A2)

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

Providence is Qualified for AHL (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Providence won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Rochester may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Providence has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Providence won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 62:51. (average 3.3:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Providence won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 3.2:2.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Providence Bruins
AHL
10.04.26	Hartford Wolf Pack - Providence Bruins	1:4 ✺
04.04.26	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	2:1 OT ✺
03.04.26	Syracuse Crunch - Providence Bruins	2:4 ✺
01.04.26	Utica Comets - Providence Bruins	2:3 penalties ✺
29.03.26	Providence Bruins - Springfield Thunderbirds	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWL
- Rochester Americans
AHL
10.04.26	Springfield Thunderbirds - Rochester Americans	3:1 ✺
08.04.26	Syracuse Crunch - Rochester Americans	2:3 ✺
06.04.26	Cleveland Monsters - Rochester Americans	3:4 penalties ✺
04.04.26	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	2:1 OT ✺
03.04.26	Rochester Americans - Belleville Senators	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AHL
04.04.26	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	2:1 OT
14.03.25	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	4:3 penalties
24.01.25	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	3:0
06.04.24	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	2:3 OT
22.12.23	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	3:6
26.02.23	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	1:5
23.11.22	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	4:3 OT

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