Match Info

AHL

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Blue Cross Arena (Rochester, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Rochester Americans		Providence Bruins

	1	X	2
	2.63	4	2.1	Watch
	2.65	3.95	2.21
	2.73	4.2	2.15
	2.77	4.28	2.11	Watch
	2.7	4	2.15
	2.74	4.26	2.13	Watch
	2.37	3.8	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.38)	4.07 ↑ (3.8)	2.19 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochester Americans
34.9%

Draw
22.8%

Providence Bruins
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

24.1%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

25.8%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochester Americans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Providence Bruins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochester Americans than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rochester Americans, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Providence Bruins than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Providence Bruins, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Levi D. (G)	30. DiPietro M. (G)
15. Bayreuther G. (A)	47. Abate J.
58. Belliveau I.	18. Blumel M.
73. Costantini M.	38. Brown P. (C)
37. Douglas C.	23. Callahan M. (A)
29. Fulp A.	11. Duran R.
91. Helenius K.	26. Farinacci J.
39. Jones Z.	9. Felix C.
8. Joshua J.	24. Gallagher T.
83. Komarov V.	12. Hagens J.
16. Kuntar T.	10. Merkulov G. (A)
7. Leschyshyn J.	17. Mutter N.
2. McCarthy G.	21. Poitras M.
72. Meyer C. (A)	8. Schmaltz J.
20. Nadeau O.	29. Soderstrom V.
17. Savage R.	6. Sweezey B.
19. Slaggert G.	14. Tattle R.
24. Wahlberg A.	27. Tufte R.
45. Warren B. (A)	13. Wanner M.
Substitutes
33. Ratzlaff S. (G)	34. Zajicek S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
03:31, 1 - 0, Wahlberg A. (G), Helenius K. (A),
12:02, 1 - 1, Soderstrom V. (G), Hagens J. (A), Merkulov G. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Overtime (1 - 0)
04:37, 2 - 1, Costantini M. (G), Komarov V. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

Providence is Qualified for AHL (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rochester won 3.

Rochester has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Providence is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Rochester has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Rochester won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 49:61. (average 2.7:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Rochester won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:32. (average 3:3.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochester Americans
AHL
03.04.26	Rochester Americans - Belleville Senators	2:5 ✺
01.04.26	Rochester Americans - Charlotte Checkers	3:5 ✺
29.03.26	Rochester Americans - Syracuse Crunch	3:2 penalties ✺
28.03.26	Syracuse Crunch - Rochester Americans	5:3 ✺
27.03.26	Rochester Americans - Toronto Marlies	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWLW
- Providence Bruins
AHL
03.04.26	Syracuse Crunch - Providence Bruins	2:4 ✺
01.04.26	Utica Comets - Providence Bruins	2:3 penalties ✺
29.03.26	Providence Bruins - Springfield Thunderbirds	2:4 ✺
28.03.26	Providence Bruins - Bridgeport Islanders	6:4 ✺
25.03.26	Springfield Thunderbirds - Providence Bruins	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
14.03.25	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	4:3 penalties
24.01.25	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	3:0
06.04.24	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	2:3 OT
22.12.23	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	3:6
26.02.23	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	1:5
23.11.22	Rochester Americans - Providence Bruins	4:3 OT
11.02.22	Providence Bruins - Rochester Americans	3:2 penalties

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