Match Info

VHL

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday


	Gornyak-UGMK		Bars Kazan

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.65	3.52
	1.68	3.55	3.45
	1.73	4.16	4.01	Watch
	1.74	4.1	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.08)	3.87 ↓ (4.05)	3.67 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
52.3%

Draw
23.2%

Bars Kazan
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

23.1%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

24.2%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gornyak-UGMK's performance.

Bars Kazan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bars Kazan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gornyak-UGMK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bars Kazan than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bars Kazan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gornyak UGMK - Bars Kazan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gornyak-UGMK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
93. Romashkin P. (G)	70. Konovalov M. (G)
26. Ishimnikov N.	24. Bogatov N. (A)
8. Karpovich D.	39. Almetkin V.
91. Makeyev A. (C)	93. Barsukov I.
13. Zaytsev O. (A)	9. Alshevsky S. (A)
70. Alexeyev Y.	71. Shiksatdarov I.
Line 2
62. Shchuchinov A.	76. Nikitin K.
72. Trofimov Y.	18. Abrosimov R.
52. Ovchinnikov I. (A)	55. Sherstnyov D.
14. Makhrin M.	98. Saberzyanov M.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	17. Gizatullin D.
Line 3
94. Kaigorodov G.	53. Makhmutov A.
28. Sitnikov V.	62. Naumov G.
96. Miller N.	90. Ibragimov T.
27. Yepishchev I.	28. Golubev D. (C)
97. Anufriev I.	23. Zinovyev D.
Line 4
54. Boikov D.	84. Safin A.
90. Nekrasov N.	16. Toporkov V.
80. Demidovich V.	64. Gazizov R.
18. Sushchev V.	41. Klimkin I.
32. Borisov S.	61. Khasanov I.
Substitutes
35. Tulinov N. (G)	80. Chibizov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
07:43, 0 - 1, Gizatullin D. (G), Nikitin K. (A),
08:28, 1 - 1, Makhrin M. (G), Ovchinnikov I. (A), Shchuchinov A. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
01:59, 1 - 2, Barsukov I. (G), Shiksatdarov I. (A),
02:22, 2 - 2, Boikov D. (G), Nekrasov N. (A), Sushchev V. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
03:22, 2 - 3, Sherstnyov D. (G), Saberzyanov M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 1.

Gornyak-UGMK has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bars is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bars may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Gornyak-UGMK carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Gornyak-UGMK in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Gornyak-UGMK has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 42:42 (averaging 2.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gornyak-UGMK against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 27:18 goals (averaging 3:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
21	Bars	12	5	0	1	6	28:41	11

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 45.07%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Bars Kazan - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.78%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
04.10.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	1:2 penalties ✺
02.10.26	Gornyak-UGMK - CSK VVS Samara	5:2 ✺
26.09.26	Khimik - Gornyak-UGMK	1:4 ✺
24.09.26	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 ✺
22.09.26	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 LWWWW
- HC Bars Kazan
VHL
04.10.26	Chelmet - Bars Kazan	3:4 ✺
02.10.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Bars Kazan	4:2 ✺
30.09.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Bars Kazan	4:0 ✺
25.09.26	Bars Kazan - Molot Perm	0:4 ✺
23.09.26	Bars Kazan - Toros Neftekamsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
13.02.26	Bars Kazan - Gornyak-UGMK	4:1
01.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Bars Kazan	0:1
15.12.24	Bars Kazan - Gornyak-UGMK	4:3 penalties
05.12.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Bars Kazan	5:0
28.11.23	Bars Kazan - Gornyak-UGMK	5:3
14.11.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Bars Kazan	4:3
06.01.23	Bars Kazan - Gornyak-UGMK	0:3

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