Match Info

Liiga

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Kisapuisto (Lappeenranta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	SaiPa		Ässät

	1	X	2
	1.76	4.5	3.5
	1.80	4.33	3.40
	1.88	4.3	3.5	Watch
	1.96	3.78	3.36
	1.93	4.1	3.3	Watch
	1.94	3.7	3.3
	1.95	4.2	3.21	Watch
	1.93	4	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.95)	4.11 ↓ (4.29)	3.35 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SaiPa
49.4%

Draw
22.7%

Ässät
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

21.8%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

22.9%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

SaiPa - Ässät Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. SaiPa will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Ässät will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Grigals G. (G)	30. Bednar J. (G)
6. Airola S.	79. Nikkila P. (A)
7. Niinisaari S. (C)	61. Jurgens C.
10. Emanuelsson E.	48. Klingberg C. (A)
28. Intonen A.	10. Hillis C.
11. Fridrich P.	34. Doucet A.
Line 2
2. Peski A.	37. Maatta R. (C)
50. Salminen S. (A)	3. Anttalainen A.
81. Klintrup E.	47. Pinard S.
41. Zabaneh N.	36. Bjorkqvist K.
52. Palmu P.	18. Ylitalo O.
Line 3
14. Kramer B.	55. Riihinen P.
55. Trejbal O.	80. Nurmi P.
70. Naukkarinen J.	8. Olofsson J.
34. Perttu M.	14. Sebok B.
75. Siikanen P.	63. Kostilainen S.
Line 4
17. Svensk V.	7. Pulli J.
18. Heikkila J.	44. Skinnari A.
57. Hokkanen O.	72. Ojantakanen K.
62. Tauslahti M.	26. Kim A.
Substitutes
30. Piiroinen K. (G)	24. Aijala E.
92. Zezelj A.	33. Taponen R. (G)
Coaches
. Helminen R.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
09:04, 0 - 1, Jurgens C. (G), Doucet A. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
15:45, Salminen S. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
12:53, Pinard S. (2 min),
15:20, Nurmi P. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
02:20, Palmu P. (2 min),
09:15, Sebok B. (2 min),
09:21, 1 - 1, Tauslahti M. (G), Fridrich P. (A), Airola S. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (0 - 1)
1, Klintrup E. (Penalty Shot),
1, Hillis C. (Penalty Shot),
2, Intonen A. (Penalty Shot),
2, Nikkila P. (Penalty Shot),
3, Zabaneh N. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 3.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Ässät could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.

SaiPa is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, SaiPa has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 54:48 (averaging 2.7:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for SaiPa against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 29:22 goals (averaging 2.9:2.2 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 4.11%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.26%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	2:1 OT ✺
18.09.26	KooKoo - SaiPa	0:4 ✺
15.09.26	SaiPa - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 OT ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
12.09.26	SaiPa - Nitra	2:3 AET ✺
10.09.26	SaiPa - Pardubice	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLW
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	5:1 ✺
09.09.26	Ässät - Jokerit	3:2 ✺
04.09.26	Ässät - Ilves	5:1 ✺
01.09.26	Kärpät - Ässät	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
13.04.26	SaiPa - Ässät	4:2
11.04.26	Ässät - SaiPa	1:3
08.04.26	SaiPa - Ässät	1:5
06.04.26	Ässät - SaiPa	4:2
03.04.26	SaiPa - Ässät	4:1
31.03.26	Ässät - SaiPa	2:3 OT
28.03.26	SaiPa - Ässät	2:3 OT

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