Match Info

KHL

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: SKA Arena (Saint Petersburg)


	Shanghai Dragons		Severstal Cherepovets

	1	X	2
	3.5	4.3	1.87
	3.52	4.32	1.88	Watch
	3.5	4	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.25)	4.21 ↑ (4.1)	1.87 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shanghai Dragons
27%

Draw
22.5%

Severstal Cherepovets
50.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

22.4%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

23.9%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shanghai Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Severstal Cherepovets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shanghai Dragons than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Shanghai Dragons - Severstal Cherepovets Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Shanghai will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Severstal will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shanghai: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Severstal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Kareyev A. (G)	29. Samoilov A. (G)
24. Reilly W.	32. Gregoire T.
28. Bischoff J.	8. Kaldis Y.
17. Rendulic B.	51. Kvochko I.
72. Quinney G.	53. Aimurzin D.
10. Merkley N. (A)	99. Ilyin M.
Line 2
5. Clendening A.	2. Grudinin V.
9. Valentsov V.	75. Davydov T.
12. Labanc K.	10. Tsitsyura V.
16. Josephs T.	17. Abrosimov R. (C)
37. Sucese N.	90. Chefanov I.
Line 3
74. Bryntsev A.	7. Burenov N.
3. Leontyev V.	21. Kamalov N.
15. Shuai Fu (C)	81. Kazulayev D.
14. Sutter R. (A)	6. Ivantsov I.
22. Fu Jiang	12. Skorenov A.
Line 4
81. Popugayev N. A.	67. Karimov T.
11. Kuznetsov V.	88. Dumbadze D. (A)
91. Wagner A.	66. Podshivalov I. (A)
	42. Tankov K.
Substitutes
90. Tikhomirov A. (G)	85. Okunev I.
	1. Shostak K. (G)
Coaches
. Love M.	. Kozyrev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
00:56, Clendening A. (2 min),
06:04, Wagner A. (2 min),
06:28, 0 - 1, Aimurzin D. (G), Ilyin M. (A),
07:25, 0 - 2, Podshivalov I. (G), Dumbadze D. (A),
10:26, Karimov T. (2 min),
13:24, 1 - 2, Bryntsev A. (G), Fu Jiang (A), Valentsov V. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:13, 1 - 3, Chefanov I. (G), Tsitsyura V. (A), Kaldis Y. (A2)
10:22, Burenov N. (2 min),
12:14, 2 - 3, Sucese N. (G), Reilly W. (A), Shuai Fu (A2)
15:23, Fu Jiang (2 min),
19:47, Abrosimov R. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
04:31, Valentsov V. (2 min),
10:30, Kareyev A. ↓, Tikhomirov A. ↑,
15:27, Rendulic B. (2 min),
19:24, Tsitsyura V. (2 min),

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - SKA Arena.

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ KHL (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Shanghai is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Severstal has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shanghai may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Shanghai has had a series of home games.

Severstal could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Shanghai won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 3:3.7).

Including home match between the teams, Shanghai won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4.

Last Results with these Odds

Severstal Cherepovets - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.36%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shanghai Dragons
KHL
10.02.26	Shanghai Dragons - Lokomotiv Yaroslavl	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Shanghai Dragons - HC CSKA Moscow	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Shanghai Dragons - Avangard Omsk	3:5 ✺
30.01.26	Shanghai Dragons - Sochi	5:2 ✺
29.01.26	Shanghai Dragons - Sochi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL
- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
10.02.26	Dinamo Minsk - Severstal Cherepovets	7:4 ✺
05.02.26	Severstal Cherepovets - SKA Saint Petersburg	1:3 ✺
02.02.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Spartak Moscow	1:5 ✺
30.01.26	Dynamo Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3 ✺
28.01.26	Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

KHL
08.11.25	Shanghai Dragons - Severstal Cherepovets	2:4
01.11.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Shanghai Dragons	3:6
26.10.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Shanghai Dragons	4:1

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