Match Info

KHL

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Bolshoy Ice Dome (Sochi)


	Sochi		Metallurg Magnitogorsk

	1	X	2
	5.8	5.4	1.52
	5.72	5.33	1.46	Watch
	5.5	5.25	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.67 ↑ (4.9)	5.33 ↑ (4.8)	1.48 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochi
16.9%

Draw
18%

Metallurg Magnitogorsk
65%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

19.1%

62.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

19.1%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Metallurg Magnitogorsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metallurg Magnitogorsk than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Sochi - Metallurg Magnitogorsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sochi will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Metallurg M will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sochi: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sochi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Samsonov I. (G)	20. Smolin A. (G)
22. Hoefenmayer N.	21. Press R.
11. Volkov A. (A)	85. Maklyukov A. (C)
34. Popov S.	84. Fyodorov M.
87. Khafizov T.	39. Kozlov A.
78. Polyakov N.	19. Tkachev V. (A)
Line 2
23. Machulin V.	9. Orekhov V.
88. Nikolayev I.	44. Yakovlev Y. (A)
71. Ellis M.	28. Tolchinsky S.
77. Guskov M.	26. Barach D.
27. Kagarlitsky D.	29. Vovchenko D.
Line 3
51. Sushko I.	87. Palivko D.
28. Ibragimov S.	56. Khabarov M.
41. Bitten W.	31. Petunin A.
61. Beaudin J.	22. Iskhakov R.
97. Seroukh D. (A)	11. Mikhailis N.
Line 4
5. Sapozhnikov A.	51. Poltavchuk N.
25. Dedunov P. (C)	92. Kuznetsov E.
15. Utkin D.	93. Nechayev I.
9. Vengryzhanovsky D.	94. Korobkin Y.
Substitutes
30. Khomchenko P. (G)	96. Korotkov N.
72. Manukhov R.	58. Pavlinsky V. (G)
Coaches
. Mikhailov D.	. Razin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 4)
07:26, Polyakov N. (2 min),
08:17, 0 - 1, Fyodorov M. (G), Yakovlev Y. (A), Tkachev V. (A2)
10:29, 0 - 2, Petunin A. (G), Iskhakov R. (A), Mikhailis N. (A2)
15:43, 0 - 3, Nechayev I. (G), Kuznetsov E. (A),
16:47, Sapozhnikov A. (2 min),
17:41, 0 - 4, Barach D. (G), Fyodorov M. (A), Tkachev V. (A2)
19:57, Palivko D. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
00:01, Samsonov I. ↓, Khomchenko P. ↑,
11:03, Nikolayev I. (2 min),
12:35, 0 - 5, Iskhakov R. (G), Petunin A. (A), Mikhailis N. (A2)
14:32, Seroukh D. (2 min),
15:36, Mikhailis N. (2 min),
19:15, Kozlov A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
04:02, 0 - 6, Kuznetsov E. (G), Orekhov V. (A), Nechayev I. (A2)
05:21, Bitten W. (2 min),
12:28, Khabarov M. (2 min),
18:59, 1 - 6, Popov S. (G), Machulin V. (A), Guskov M. (A2)
19:24, Iskhakov R. (2 min),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ KHL (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Sochi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sochi has had a series of away games.

In this match, Metallurg M is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 35:65. (average 1.8:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sochi won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:27. (average 1.7:2.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Sochi - the odds 4.9 are the expected chance of winning is 18.68%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Sochi
KHL
04.12.25	Avangard Omsk - Sochi	5:2 ✺
02.12.25	Admiral Vladivostok - Sochi	2:4 ✺
30.11.25	Amur Khabarovsk - Sochi	0:1 ✺
28.11.25	Traktor Chelyabinsk - Sochi	6:1 ✺
25.11.25	Sochi - Lada Togliatti	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWLL
- Metallurg Magnitogorsk
KHL
05.12.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	2:1 OT ✺
03.12.25	Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	5:6 ✺
29.11.25	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Barys Astana	5:2 ✺
27.11.25	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Avangard Omsk	1:3 ✺
22.11.25	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Admiral Vladivostok	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

KHL
06.03.25	Sochi - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	0:3
13.01.25	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Sochi	4:2
11.01.24	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Sochi	4:1
03.01.24	Sochi - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	2:3 OT
18.02.23	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Sochi	4:2
14.01.23	Sochi - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	3:2
23.10.21	Sochi - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	2:3 penalties

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