Match Info

Liiga

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	TPS		Ässät

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.3	3.4
	1.98	3.95	3.4
	1.95	3.67	3.48
	1.93	3.83	3.51	Watch
	1.8	3.9	3.3
	1.91	4.2	3.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.07)	3.98 ↓ (4.03)	3.4 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

TPS
49.1%

Draw
23.5%

Ässät
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

23.2%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

26.7%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

TPS - Ässät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)	39. Lindberg F. (G)
2. Tuhkala A.	67. Puutio K. (A)
61. Binner A.	3. Anttalainen A.
49. Wernblom L.	9. Lipiainen V.
86. Yliniemi S.	74. Tiivola P. (A)
82. Pakkila E.	78. Fabre D.
Line 2
6. Rafkin R. (C)	10. Nilsson O.
40. Lehtonen S.	77. Piipponen S.
10. Ylitalo N.	88. Olofsson J.
21. Maatta J.	44. Jarvinen J. (C)
19. Savinainen V.	63. Kostilainen S.
Line 3
38. Landen A.	55. Riihinen P.
7. Lauridsen O. (A)	80. Nurmi P.
84. Pikkarainen K.	16. Noiva N.
26. Nassen L.	92. Alasiurua A.
87. Saarela A.	47. Tammela J.
Line 4
5. Sjoholm V.	8. Viljanen V.
9. Koivu A.	86. Knihti F.
24. Virtanen J.	14. Sebok B.
67. Ruokonen M.	18. Ylitalo O.
Substitutes
30. Ruusu M. (G)	30. Bednar J. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
00:54, 1 - 0, Pakkila E. (G), Tuhkala A. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
02:03, Riihinen P. (2 min),
07:51, 2 - 0, Saarela A. (G), Landen A. (A), Virtanen J. (A2)
07:51, Pikkarainen K. (2 min),
07:51, Nilsson O. (2 min),
13:01, Lauridsen O. (5 min),
14:22, 2 - 1, Nurmi P. (G), Lipiainen V. (A), Tiivola P. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 4)
04:11, Landen A. (2 min),
05:57, 2 - 2, Tiivola P. (G), Lipiainen V. (A), Tammela J. (A2)
17:24, 2 - 3, Kostilainen S. (G), Jarvinen J. (A), Olofsson J. (A2)
18:32, 2 - 4, Knihti F. (G),
18:58, 2 - 5, Tammela J. (G),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Ässät is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.

Recent form of TPS has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ässät has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ässät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

TPS might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 51:54. (average 2.6:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 2.8:2.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 2.54%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.09%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Ässät - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.75%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
13.03.26	Ässät - TPS	6:2 ✺
11.03.26	TPS - Vaasan Sport	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	TPS - Ilves	1:4 ✺
04.03.26	TPS - Lukko	3:4 penalties ✺
25.02.26	TPS - SaiPa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
13.03.26	Ässät - TPS	6:2 ✺
10.03.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Ässät	1:3 ✺
05.03.26	Ässät - KalPa	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Ässät - HIFK	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
13.03.26	Ässät - TPS	6:2
15.11.25	Ässät - TPS	2:1 OT
14.11.25	TPS - Ässät	3:4
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
04.09.25	Ässät - TPS	4:1
15.08.25	TPS - Ässät	3:1
Finnish SM-liiga
15.02.25	Ässät - TPS	6:3
14.02.25	TPS - Ässät	1:3

Upcoming Matches