Match Info

Liiga

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	TPS		Ilves

	1	X	2
	3.3	4.3	1.9
	3.5	3.85	1.98	Watch
	3.41	3.86	1.97
	3.36	3.92	1.96
	3.1	3.8	1.85
	3.23	4.15	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.87)	3.98 ↓ (4.07)	1.94 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
28.2%

Draw
23.5%

Ilves
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

22.7%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

24.8%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for TPS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

TPS - Ilves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Vali N. (G)	40. Armalis M. (G)
5. Sjoholm V.	23. Johansson S.
61. Binner A.	57. Parikka J.
49. Wernblom L.	46. Torok M.
86. Yliniemi S.	12. Mantykivi M.
82. Pakkila E.	17. Ratinen S.
Line 2
6. Rafkin R. (C)	53. Pelli A.
40. Lehtonen S.	21. Kucerik R.
87. Saarela A.	48. Klingberg C. (A)
21. Maatta J. (A)	92. Henman L.
19. Savinainen V.	20. Bjorkqvist K.
Line 3
2. Tuhkala A.	3. Utunen T. (A)
7. Lauridsen O. (A)	28. Nyberg J.
84. Pikkarainen K.	89. Quenneville P.
26. Nassen L.	11. Borg E.
20. Myllymaa K.	22. Engberg T.
Line 4
4. Jokinen M.	43. Latvala O.
10. Ylitalo N.	38. Teuho-Markkola T.
57. Munkki V.	86. Nattinen J. (C)
67. Ruokonen M.	15. Kos O.
Substitutes
30. Ruusu M. (G)	39. Pavlat D. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Niemela T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
08:22, 0 - 1, Nattinen J. (G), Teuho-Markkola T. (A), Parikka J. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
06:37, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
06:37, Bjorkqvist K. (2 min),
13:02, Torok M. (Penalty Shot),
13:02, Wernblom L. (2 min),
14:42, Binner A. (2 min),
14:42, Klingberg C. (Penalty Shot),
15:54, 0 - 2, Ratinen S. (G), Pelli A. (A), Torok M. (A2)
19:11, Pelli A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
08:03, Jokinen M. (2 min),
16:57, 0 - 3, Henman L. (G),
17:57, 1 - 3, Pakkila E. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
19:52, 1 - 4, Klingberg C. (G),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

TPS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, TPS has had a series of home games.

Ilves is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 45:47. (average 2.3:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:18. (average 2.7:1.8).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.24%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
04.03.26	TPS - Lukko	3:4 penalties ✺
25.02.26	TPS - SaiPa	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	TPS - JYP	3:8 ✺
14.02.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	1:4 ✺
13.02.26	TPS - Vaasan Sport	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWW
- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
06.03.26	Ilves - Tappara	4:3 OT ✺
28.02.26	KooKoo - Ilves	5:1 ✺
25.02.26	Pelicans - Ilves	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	KalPa - Ilves	3:4 ✺
17.02.26	Ilves - Lukko	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
03.01.26	Ilves - TPS	5:2
18.10.25	TPS - Ilves	4:3 OT
17.10.25	Ilves - TPS	4:3 OT
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
22.08.25	Ilves - TPS	3:2 penalties
Finnish SM-liiga
25.01.25	Ilves - TPS	1:0
13.12.24	TPS - Ilves	3:2
25.10.24	TPS - Ilves	5:3

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