Match Info

Liiga

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Isomäki Areena (Pori) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	17:00	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	16:00	TV4 Play


	Ässät		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.55
	2.30	3.90	2.60
	2.48	3.7	2.65	Watch
	2.46	3.58	2.59
	2.41	3.73	2.63	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.55
	2.36	3.98	2.55	Watch
	2.32	3.8	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.29)	3.77 ↑ (3.67)	2.59 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ässät
39.3%

Draw
24.7%

TPS
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.5%

25.2%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

26.6%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Ässät - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ässät will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Bednar J. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
79. Nikkila P. (A)	6. Rafkin R. (A)
61. Jurgens C.	44. Lindbohm P.
47. Pinard S.	49. Wernblom L.
10. Hillis C.	21. Maatta J.
34. Doucet A.	22. Bryggman L. (A)
Line 2
37. Maatta R. (A)	38. Landen A.
7. Pulli J.	40. Lehtonen S.
8. Olofsson J.	25. Ikonen Jo.
14. Sebok B.	86. Yliniemi S.
63. Kostilainen S.	24. Virtanen J.
Line 3
55. Riihinen P.	2. Tuhkala A.
80. Nurmi P.	61. Binner A.
16. Noiva N.	9. Koivu A.
19. Juhola P.	13. Paajanen O. (C)
92. Alasiurua A.	19. Savinainen V.
Line 4
18. Ylitalo O.	7. Lauridsen O.
74. Tiivola P. (C)	84. Pikkarainen K.
36. Bjorkqvist K.	57. Munkki V.
	47. Kuru H.
Substitutes
26. Kim A.	30. Ruusu M. (G)
72. Ojantakanen K.	10. Ylitalo N.
33. Taponen R. (G)
Coaches
. Pikkarainen J.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
07:54, Nikkila P. (2 min),
09:37, 1 - 0, Kostilainen S. (G), Juhola P. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 2)
01:39, 2 - 0, Doucet A. (G), Pinard S. (A), Riihinen P. (A2)
06:48, 2 - 1, Wernblom L. (G),
11:27, 2 - 2, Virtanen J. (G), Paajanen O. (A), Landen A. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
06:16, Tuhkala A. (2 min),
18:11, 2 - 3, Ikonen Jo. (G), Virtanen J. (A), Makiniemi E. (A2)
19:21, 2 - 4, Bryggman L. (G), Lindbohm P. (A),

Preview

The table topper faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 8th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 5.

Ässät has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

TPS has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ässät could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Ässät has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ässät has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 59:48 (averaging 3:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ässät against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 36:24 goals (averaging 3.3:2.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	TPS Turku	19	9	1	2	7	53:48	31
8	Assat	19	9	1	2	7	44:47	31

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 5.33%

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.46%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.3%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
16.10.26	Jokerit - Ässät	2:4 ✺
14.10.26	KalPa - Ässät	0:1 ✺
09.10.26	Ässät - HPK	2:3 penalties ✺
07.10.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Ässät	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Lukko - Ässät	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWLWW
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
16.10.26	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	4:2 ✺
14.10.26	HIFK - TPS	3:4 penalties ✺
10.10.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 penalties ✺
03.10.26	TPS - JYP	4:1 ✺
30.09.26	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
14.03.26	TPS - Ässät	2:5
13.03.26	Ässät - TPS	6:2
15.11.25	Ässät - TPS	2:1 OT
14.11.25	TPS - Ässät	3:4
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
04.09.25	Ässät - TPS	4:1
15.08.25	TPS - Ässät	3:1
Finnish SM-liiga
15.02.25	Ässät - TPS	6:3

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