Match Info

MHL

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Tolpar		Tyumensky Legion

	1	X	2
	1.18	6.95	9.23
	1.19	7.6	9.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.42)	7.28 ↑ (5.9)	9.37 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolpar
77.6%

Draw
12.6%

Tyumensky Legion
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.8%

15.8%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

15.2%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tolpar's performance.

Tyumensky Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tyumensky Legion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tolpar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tyumensky Legion than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tyumensky Legion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tolpar - Tyumensky Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 5:2

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Lineups

Line 1
99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)	70. Ponomaryov O. (G)
16. Khusainov R.	76. Kartashov A.
23. Khafzetdinov A. (A)	84. Abdulmanov D.
97. Faizov A. (A)	19. Eliseev I.
37. Zagrebin M. (C)	95. Lebedev A.
28. Akhsyanov B.	72. Yepifanov M.
Line 2
36. Gunkin Y.	75. Dementyev L.
24. Karasyov M.	36. Kholikov T.
11. Shaykhlislamov A.	91. Redko R.
87. Buzdyganov V.	81. Karpov S.
9. Petrenko D.	52. Yanovsky I.
Line 3
86. Volkov D.	74. Biketov D.
13. Korenev D.	4. Khokhlov Z.
18. Kireyev R.	97. Sychugov D.
67. Khabibullin A.	88. Vakhit D.
47. Fogelnest M.	17. Pertsev D.
Line 4
98. Zayets D.	33. Bezhan S.
78. Zhuk A.	60. Nurmagamedov R.
26. Degtyarev M.	98. Klochanov A.
75. Shebyakin M.	15. Dubrovsky D.
Substitutes
94. Tkachyov K. (G)	47. Chizhikov N.
	71. Maslennikov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
01:27, 1 - 0, Petrenko D. (G), Shaykhlislamov A. (A), Gunkin Y. (A2)
03:18, 1 - 1, Lebedev A. (G), Zacharov A. (A),
2nd Period (4 - 1)
05:04, 2 - 1, Petrenko D. (G), Shaykhlislamov A. (A), Korenev D. (A2)
14:33, 3 - 1, Faizov A. (G), Khafzetdinov A. (A), Akhsyanov B. (A2)
15:19, 3 - 2, Yepifanov M. (G), Chizhikov N. (A), Kholikov T. (A2)
18:00, 4 - 2, Zagrebin M. (G), Faizov A. (A), Volkov D. (A2)
19:53, 5 - 2, Akhsyanov B. (G), Faizov A. (A), Karasyov M. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
02:55, 6 - 2, Buzdyganov V. (G), Shaykhlislamov A. (A), Petrenko D. (A2)
14:05, 6 - 3, Lebedev A. (G), Dubrovsky D. (A), Dementyev L. (A2)
17:38, 7 - 3, Shaykhlislamov A. (G), Khafzetdinov A. (A), Khusainov R. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 4.

Recent performances by Tolpar have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tyumensky Legion has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tyumensky Legion may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tolpar has had a series of home games.

In this match, Tolpar is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 95:25. (average 4.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tolpar won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 56:13. (average 5.6:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Tyumensky Legion - the odds 5.1 are the expected chance of winning is 18.33%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
18.09.25	Dinamo-Shinnik - Tolpar	2:3 OT ✺
15.09.25	Tolpar - Stalnye Lisy	2:3 ✺
11.09.25	Tolpar - Chaika	2:3 ✺
10.09.25	Tolpar - Chaika	5:2 ✺
07.09.25	Tolpar - Irbis Kazan	5:6 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLWL
- Tyumensky Legion
MHL
20.09.25	Stalnye Lisy - Tyumensky Legion	9:2 ✺
18.09.25	Molot Perm - Tyumensky Legion	6:1 ✺
09.09.25	Tyumensky Legion - AKM-Junior	4:5 ✺
05.09.25	Tyumensky Legion - Molot Perm	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.25	Reaktor - Tyumensky Legion	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
14.01.25	Tyumensky Legion - Tolpar	1:4
13.01.25	Tyumensky Legion - Tolpar	1:4
12.10.24	Tolpar - Tyumensky Legion	6:2
11.10.24	Tolpar - Tyumensky Legion	6:0
13.02.24	Tyumensky Legion - Tolpar	2:1
10.11.23	Tolpar - Tyumensky Legion	7:5
17.01.23	Tolpar - Tyumensky Legion	2:1 OT

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