Match Info

NHL

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+, Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Slovakia	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Florida Panthers

	1	X	2
	2.1	4.25	2.9	Watch
	2.25	4.05	2.7
	2.2	4.35	2.94
	2.19	4.4	2.72	Watch
	2.15	4	2.6
	2.21	4.42	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.44)	4.25 ↑ (4.18)	2.76 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
43.4%

Draw
22.3%

Florida Panthers
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

22.6%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

24.6%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Florida Panthers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toronto Maple Leafs that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Florida Panthers than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Florida Panthers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Florida Panthers Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Florida will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	40. Tarasov D. (G)
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	20. Benning M.
44. Rielly M. (A)	42. Forsling G. (A)
88. Nylander W. (A)	11. Samoskevich M.
91. Tavares J. (A)	9. Bennett S. (A)
63. Maccelli M.	23. Verhaeghe C. (A)
Line 2
28. Stecher T.	3. Jansson L.
22. McCabe J.	6. Sebrango D.
23. Knies M.	10. Greer A.J.
11. Domi M.	27. Luostarinen E.
53. Cowan E.	25. Skoog W.
Line 3
76. Villeneuve W.	4. Alscher M.
2. Benoit S.	22. Bjornfot T.
89. Robertson N.	18. Gregor N.
43. Haymes L.	92. Nosek T.
18. Lorentz S.	79. Schwindt C.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	24. Hinostroza V.
26. Quillan J.	71. Kunin L.
61. Pezzetta M.	29. Reinhardt C.
Substitutes
70. Akhtyamov A. (G)	72. Bobrovsky S. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Maurice P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
00:23, 0 - 1, Luostarinen E. (G), Samoskevich M. (A),
05:32, 0 - 2, Reinhardt C. (G), Sebrango D. (A), Hinostroza V. (A2)
05:32, (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 1)
01:32, 0 - 3, Nosek T. (G), Alscher M. (A),
10:34, Foote N. (2 min),
10:55, 1 - 3, Nylander W. (G), Tavares J. (A), Cowan E. (A2)
13:16, 2 - 3, Nylander W. (G),
3rd Period (0 - 3)
04:13, 2 - 4, Samoskevich M. (G), Greer A.J. (A), Luostarinen E. (A2)
15:56, 2 - 5, Greer A.J. (G), Luostarinen E. (A), Samoskevich M. (A2)
18:07, 2 - 6, Nosek T. (G), Gregor N. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Matthews A. (Knee Injury) Stolarz A. (Lower-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)

There will not play in Florida: Balinskis U. (Lower-Body Injury) Barkov A. (Knee Injury) Ekblad A. (Finger Injury) Gadjovich J. (Upper-Body Injury) Jones S. (Foot Injury) Kulikov D. (Finger Injury) Lundell A. (Ribs Injury) Marchand B. (Lower-Body Injury) Mikkola N. (Knee Injury) Reinhart S. (Foot Injury) Rodrigues E. (Finger Injury) Tkachuk M. (Personal Reasons)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 47:64. (average 2.4:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:34. (average 2.9:3.4).

Outrights of NHL for now

Florida Panthers: 9.47% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Florida Panthers - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.7%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
09.04.26	New York Islanders - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:3 ✺
08.04.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Washington Capitals	0:4 ✺
04.04.26	Los Angeles Kings - Toronto Maple Leafs	7:6 OT ✺
02.04.26	San Jose Sharks - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:1 ✺
30.03.26	Anaheim Ducks - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLLW
- Florida Panthers
NHL
09.04.26	Ottawa Senators - Florida Panthers	5:1 ✺
07.04.26	Montreal Canadiens - Florida Panthers	4:3 penalties ✺
05.04.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Florida Panthers	5:2 ✺
04.04.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - Florida Panthers	9:4 ✺
02.04.26	Florida Panthers - Boston Bruins	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
26.02.26	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1
06.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Florida Panthers	4:1
02.12.25	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4
18.05.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Florida Panthers	1:6
16.05.25	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	0:2
14.05.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Florida Panthers	1:6
11.05.25	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:0

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