Match Info

NHL

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Washington Capitals

	1	X	2
	3.1	4.25	2	Watch
	3.15	4.05	2.02
	3.04	4.29	2.05
	3.06	4.41	2	Watch
	2.9	4	1.95
	3.15	4.4	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.98)	4.23 ↑ (4.17)	2.01 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
30.8%

Draw
22.3%

Washington Capitals
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

22.7%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

23.6%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Washington Capitals has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Washington Capitals than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Washington Capitals Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Washington will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Stolarz A. (G)	48. Thompson L. (G)
25. Carlo B.	38. Sandin R.
22. McCabe J.	42. Fehervary M.
88. Nylander W. (A)	72. Beauvillier A.
91. Tavares J. (A)	17. Strome D. (A)
53. Cowan E.	8. Ovechkin A. (C)
Line 2
51. Myers P.	57. Van Riemsdyk T.
44. Rielly M. (A)	6. Chychrun J.
63. Maccelli M.	43. Wilson T. (A)
11. Domi M.	62. Protas I.
23. Knies M.	21. Protas A.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	3. Roy M.
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	44. Hutson C.
89. Robertson N.	9. Leonard R.
29. Groulx B.	80. Dubois P.
81. Joshua D.	24. McMichael C.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	63. Miroshnichenko I.
26. Quillan J.	34. Sourdif J.
18. Lorentz S.	22. Duhaime B.
Substitutes
60. Woll J. (G)	79. Lindgren C. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Carbery S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
02:34, Stolarz A. ↓, Woll J. ↑,
07:53, Domi M. (2 min),
13:22, 0 - 1, Strome D. (G), Beauvillier A. (A), Fehervary M. (A2)
18:32, Leonard R. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
00:40, 0 - 2, Leonard R. (G), Wilson T. (A),
02:53, 0 - 3, Fehervary M. (G), Strome D. (A), Sourdif J. (A2)
05:56, Protas I. (2 min),
15:02, Domi M. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
16:10, 0 - 4, Hutson C. (G), Protas A. (A), Protas I. (A2)
18:17, Leonard R. (2 min),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Washington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.

Washington could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Ekman-Larsson O. (Lower-Body Injury) Matthews A. (Knee Injury) Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 71:62. (average 3.6:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:25. (average 3.8:2.8).

Outrights of NHL for now

Washington Capitals: 5.61% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.48%

Last Results with these Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 31.7%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Washington Capitals - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.64%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
04.04.26	Los Angeles Kings - Toronto Maple Leafs	7:6 OT ✺
02.04.26	San Jose Sharks - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:1 ✺
30.03.26	Anaheim Ducks - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:5 OT ✺
28.03.26	St. Louis Blues - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1 ✺
25.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Rangers	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWLW
- Washington Capitals
NHL
05.04.26	New York Rangers - Washington Capitals	8:1 ✺
04.04.26	Washington Capitals - Buffalo Sabres	6:2 ✺
02.04.26	New Jersey Devils - Washington Capitals	7:3 ✺
31.03.26	Washington Capitals - Philadelphia Flyers	6:4 ✺
28.03.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Washington Capitals	4:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
18.12.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:0
28.11.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2
28.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Washington Capitals	2:5
06.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Washington Capitals	1:3
13.11.24	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT
28.03.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Washington Capitals	5:1
20.03.24	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:7

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