Match Info

NHL

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NHL Network
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Winnipeg Jets

	1	X	2
	2.15	4	2.9	Watch
	2.15	4.18	2.86
	2.17	4.29	2.8	Watch
	2.1	4.33	2.88
	2.15	4.57	2.88
	2.1	4.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.12)	4.27 ↓ (4.57)	2.86 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
44.5%

Draw
22.3%

Winnipeg Jets
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

21.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

20.1%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Winnipeg Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Winnipeg Jets than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Winnipeg will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Winnipeg (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	1. Comrie E. (G)
51. Myers P.	4. Pionk N.
44. Rielly M. (A)	44. Morrissey J. (A)
11. Domi M.	13. Vilardi G.
34. Matthews A. (C)	55. Scheifele M. (A)
23. Knies M.	81. Connor K.
Line 2
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	2. DeMelo D.
22. McCabe J.	54. Samberg D.
74. McMann B.	9. Iafallo A.
91. Tavares J. (A)	19. Toews J.
63. Maccelli M.	91. Perfetti C.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	6. Miller C.
2. Benoit S.	64. Stanley L.
89. Robertson N.	70. Pearson T.
55. Roy N.	17. Lowry A. (C)
53. Cowan E.	36. Barron M.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	14. Nyquist G.
24. Laughton S.	7. Namestnikov V.
18. Lorentz S.	45. Koepke C.
Substitutes
35. Hildeby D. (G)	37. Hellebuyck C. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Arniel S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
03:47, Ekman-Larsson O. (2 min),
14:09, 0 - 1, Vilardi G. (G), Scheifele M. (A), Connor K. (A2)
17:38, 0 - 2, DeMelo D. (G), Lowry A. (A), Barron M. (A2)
2nd Period (3 - 2)
01:34, 1 - 2, Matthews A. (G), Domi M. (A), Ekman-Larsson O. (A2)
02:11, 1 - 3, Iafallo A. (G), Toews J. (A), Perfetti C. (A2)
05:24, 1 - 4, Scheifele M. (G), Vilardi G. (A), Pionk N. (A2)
05:24, Woll J. ↓, Hildeby D. ↑,
11:04, 2 - 4, Ekman-Larsson O. (G), Laughton S. (A),
18:53, Pionk N. (2 min),
19:57, 3 - 4, Matthews A. (G), Rielly M. (A), Maccelli M. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
06:30, 4 - 4, Maccelli M. (G), Knies M. (A), Tavares J. (A2)
07:13, Domi M. (2 min),
08:50, 4 - 5, Scheifele M. (G), Morrissey J. (A), Nyquist G. (A2)
13:13, 5 - 5, Stecher T. (G), McMann B. (A), Matthews A. (A2)
15:38, 6 - 5, Matthews A. (G),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.

Toronto has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Winnipeg has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Toronto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Toronto might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Matthews A. (Lower-Body Injury) Mermis D. (Lower-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Lower-Body Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

We predict that Toronto will win today's game, with odds of 2.14.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 70:57. (average 3.5:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:31. (average 3.1:3.1).

Outrights of NHL for now

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45% Winnipeg Jets: 0.74%

Last Results with these Odds

Winnipeg Jets - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 33.08%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
30.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - New Jersey Devils	4:0 ✺
28.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:2 OT ✺
27.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	7:5 ✺
23.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	6:3 ✺
21.12.25	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWWL
- Winnipeg Jets
NHL
31.12.25	Detroit Red Wings - Winnipeg Jets	2:1 ✺
29.12.25	Winnipeg Jets - Edmonton Oilers	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	Winnipeg Jets - Minnesota Wild	3:4 OT ✺
21.12.25	Utah Mammoth - Winnipeg Jets	4:3 OT ✺
19.12.25	Colorado Avalanche - Winnipeg Jets	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
23.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	2:5
28.10.24	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:6
27.01.24	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:4
24.01.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	1:0 OT
19.01.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	4:1
22.10.22	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4
31.03.22	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	7:3

Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide