Match Info

Liiga

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Vaasa Arena (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Vaasan Sport		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	3	4.25	1.96
	2.85	4.20	2.05
	3.15	4.05	2.04	Watch
	2.93	3.82	2.14
	2.91	4.01	2.12	Watch
	2.9	3.75	2.11
	2.87	4.15	2.12	Watch
	2.9	3.95	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 (2.94)	4.02 ↑ (3.94)	2.08 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vaasan Sport
31.8%

Draw
23.2%

Kärpät
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

23.7%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

26.2%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Vaasan Sport have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vaasan Sport than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Vaasan Sport - Kärpät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
53. Harkonen M. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
8. Viljanen V.	21. Matinmikko A.
55. Koivisto M. (C)	25. Paaso A.
22. Walther I.	16. Okany A.
28. Sundstrom J. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
17. Diaco G.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
6. Kangas K.	9. Soini K.
26. Burger E.	26. Tichacek J.
86. Granath P.	93. Kantner M.
9. Grainger L.	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
80. Miketinac K.	8. Tieksola T.
Line 3
16. Johnsson T.	3. Kokkonen L.
62. Akerstrom S.	2. Rissanen R.
71. Nieminen V.	73. Erholtz E. (C)
18. Timonen S.	11. Tornqvist H.
10. Pietila B.	27. Ratinen S.
Line 4
77. Valtanen J.	61. Salmela T. (A)
3. Bertrand C.	62. Nilsson W.
12. Straka A.	80. Korpimaki M.
63. Heikkinen L. (A)	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
24. Levanen E.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
31. Ortio J. (G)	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Mikkola L.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
06:13, 0 - 1, Tichacek J. (G), Hirvonen R. (A), Pakkila E. (A2)
16:38, Viljanen V. (2 min),
17:19, 0 - 2, Hirvonen R. (G), Tichacek J. (A), Nilsson W. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
11:03, Matinmikko A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
09:42, Korpimaki M. (2 min),
10:35, 1 - 2, Diaco G. (G), Nieminen V. (A), Heikkinen L. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vaasa won 0.

In recent outings, Vaasa has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kärpät has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Kärpät may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Kärpät is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Vaasa has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 35:64 (averaging 1.8:3.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vaasa against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 20:25 goals (averaging 2.2:2.8 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Vaasan Sport: 0.76%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
14	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20:31	13

Last Results with these Odds

Vaasan Sport - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.78%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Kärpät - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.5%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vaasan Sport
Finnish SM-liiga
23.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 AET ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	Ässät - Vaasan Sport	5:1 ✺
09.09.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LLWLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
23.09.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1 ✺
22.09.26	Tappara - Kärpät	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Kärpät - Ilves	3:4 OT ✺
05.09.26	Kärpät - JYP	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
14.08.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	0:0
Finnish SM-liiga
17.03.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:3
03.01.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	6:0
17.09.25	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2
09.09.25	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	0:3
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
07.08.25	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	4:7

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