Match Info

Liiga

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Helsinki Ice Hall (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HIFK		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.20	4.25	2.55
	2.30	4.20	2.45
	2.45	3.85	2.50	Watch
	2.29	3.85	2.67
	2.31	4.21	2.54	Watch
	2.25	3.80	2.60
	2.25	4.20	2.60	Watch
	2.30	4.00	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.24)	4.05 ↓ (4.18)	2.56 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HIFK
40.6%

Draw
23%

Kärpät
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

22.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

24.6%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HIFK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

HIFK - Kärpät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Alnefelt H. (G)	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
27. Ahlroth J.	21. Matinmikko A.
25. Nassen L.	25. Paaso A.
43. Marleau V.	93. Kantner M.
77. Leschyshyn J.	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
72. Liukas E. (A)	27. Ratinen S.
Line 2
28. Pilo L.	9. Soini K.
83. Nemecek D.	26. Tichacek J.
88. Huuhtanen N. (A)	73. Erholtz E. (C)
81. Pakarinen I. (C)	33. Hirvonen R.
71. Makiaho D.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 3
13. Arkko V.	4. Ruotsalainen V.
11. Melart I.	2. Rissanen R.
19. Leppanen O.	62. Nilsson W.
12. Joki A.	11. Tornqvist H.
93. Vanhatalo L.	16. Okany A.
Line 4
37. Sippola O.	61. Salmela T. (A)
67. Puutio K.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
42. Sinivuori L.	80. Korpimaki M.
18. Uronen A.	59. Hermonen J.
54. Somervuori J.
Substitutes
53. Varonen V. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
	8. Tieksola T.
Coaches
. Jokinen O.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
03:35, 1 - 0, Makiaho D. (G), Ahlroth J. (A), Nassen L. (A2)
12:52, Sippola O. (2 min),
13:11, Nilsson W. (2 min),
13:11, Pakarinen I. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:12, Vanhatalo L. (2 min),
05:34, 1 - 1, Hirvonen R. (G), Tichacek J. (A), Nilsson W. (A2)
10:18, Korpimaki M. (2 min),
13:37, Pakkila E. (2 min),
15:29, 2 - 1, Marleau V. (G), Somervuori J. (A), Nassen L. (A2)
19:00, Arkko V. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
19:18, 3 - 1, Marleau V. (G), Vanhatalo L. (A), Ahlroth J. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HIFK won 4.

Recent results have been tough for HIFK (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Kärpät have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kärpät may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kärpät has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HIFK has recorded 15 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 61:43 (averaging 3.1:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HIFK against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 32:20 goals (averaging 3.2:2 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Karpat	12	5	2	2	3	34:32	21
15	IFK Helsinki	10	2	1	2	5	25:33	10

Last Results with these Odds

HIFK - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 28% of matches with these odds.

Kärpät - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.02%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
16.09.26	HIFK - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:7 ✺
09.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - HIFK	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	TPS - HIFK	5:1 ✺
04.09.26	HIFK - HPK	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
22.09.26	Tappara - Kärpät	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Kärpät - Ilves	3:4 OT ✺
05.09.26	Kärpät - JYP	3:4 ✺
01.09.26	Kärpät - Ässät	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
14.03.26	Kärpät - HIFK	4:5
13.03.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1
06.02.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:2
05.12.25	Kärpät - HIFK	0:1
15.11.25	Kärpät - HIFK	5:2
14.11.25	HIFK - Kärpät	4:3 penalties
15.03.25	Kärpät - HIFK	1:2

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