Match Info

Liiga

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Kärpät		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.25	2.5
	2.40	4.00	2.40
	2.48	4.05	2.48	Watch
	2.59	4.1	2.27
	2.39	4.08	2.49
	2.55	4.05	2.2
	2.52	4.1	2.35	Watch
	2.47	3.9	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.25)	4.07 ↑ (3.85)	2.38 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät
38%

Draw
22.9%

Ilves
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.6%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

25.4%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kärpät, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Kärpät - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 1 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Rubin N. (G)	40. Armalis M. (G)
26. Tichacek J.	27. Strand A.
21. Matinmikko A.	57. Parikka J.
73. Erholtz E. (C)	29. Looke J.
33. Hirvonen R.	9. Jasek L.
82. Pakkila E.	92. Henman L. (A)
Line 2
9. Soini K.	43. Latvala O.
61. Salmela T. (A)	6. Sund T.
93. Kantner M.	67. Haatanen A.
31. Koivistoinen E. (A)	44. Jarvinen J. (C)
27. Ratinen S.	46. Torok M.
Line 3
43. Loponen K.	77. Loof L.
2. Rissanen R.	28. Nyberg J.
62. Nilsson W.	15. Kos O.
11. Tornqvist H.	11. Borg E. (A)
18. Antti-Roiko A.	22. Engberg T.
Line 4
25. Paaso A.	3. Utunen T.
8. Tieksola T.	38. Teuho-Markkola T.
19. Tikka T.	19. Lantta J.
16. Okany A.	71. Korhonen B.
Substitutes
59. Hermonen J.	86. Heikkinen I.
32. Vedenpaa V. (G)	65. Rifalk C. (G)
Coaches
. Karjalainen P.	. Niemela T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
05:57, 0 - 1, Haatanen A. (G), Torok M. (A), Nyberg J. (A2)
07:57, Pakkila E. (2 min),
09:07, (2 min),
12:58, Tornqvist H. (2 min),
14:50, 1 - 1, Okany A. (G), Tikka T. (A), Matinmikko A. (A2)
16:00, Henman L. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
04:59, Matinmikko A. (2 min),
10:17, Tieksola T. (2 min),
14:07, Haatanen A. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 2)
02:47, Loof L. (2 min),
05:21, 2 - 1, Paaso A. (G), Tornqvist H. (A), Soini K. (A2)
17:19, 2 - 2, Jarvinen J. (G), Utunen T. (A), Torok M. (A2)
17:49, 3 - 2, Okany A. (G), Tikka T. (A),
18:47, 3 - 3, Haatanen A. (G), Henman L. (A), Jarvinen J. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
00:37, 3 - 4, Jasek L. (G), Henman L. (A), Sund T. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 2.

Recent form of Kärpät has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ilves is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kärpät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 2.44.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 50:49. (average 2.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 2.6:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	11	7	1	0	3	33:24	23
5	Karpat	12	5	2	2	3	34:32	21

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.12%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Ilves - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 33.26%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
05.09.26	Kärpät - JYP	3:4 ✺
01.09.26	Kärpät - Ässät	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	Tappara - Kärpät	5:1 ✺
26.08.26	Ilves - Kärpät	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Kärpät - Luleå	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
08.09.26	HPK - Ilves	0:4 ✺
04.09.26	Ässät - Ilves	5:1 ✺
01.09.26	Lukko - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
26.08.26	Ilves - Kärpät	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	Ilves - KalPa	1:0 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
26.08.26	Ilves - Kärpät	2:0
Finnish SM-liiga
07.02.26	Kärpät - Ilves	1:2
30.12.25	Ilves - Kärpät	3:2 OT
03.10.25	Ilves - Kärpät	2:7
12.09.25	Kärpät - Ilves	6:2
31.01.25	Kärpät - Ilves	3:2 OT
08.01.25	Ilves - Kärpät	3:4 OT

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