Match Info

Liiga

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Tappara		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	1.76	4.50	3.50
	1.78	4.33	3.50
	1.73	4.25	4.00	Watch
	1.77	3.99	3.92
	1.68	4.88	3.79	Watch
	1.75	3.95	3.85
	1.75	4.50	3.74	Watch
	1.77	4.20	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.8)	4.33 ↑ (4.08)	3.74 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tappara
53.4%

Draw
21.6%

Kärpät
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

22.9%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

23.1%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tappara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tappara - Kärpät Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tappara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tappara will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Heljanko C. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
26. Mattila Je.	26. Tichacek J.
23. Jokipakka J.	21. Matinmikko A.
88. Blichfeld J.	73. Erholtz E. (C)
22. Rasanen A. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
21. Lindqvist M.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
72. Kulonummi K.	9. Soini K.
38. Almari N.	61. Salmela T. (A)
11. Simontaival K.	93. Kantner M.
89. Suvanto O.	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
25. Haapala H.	27. Ratinen S.
Line 3
63. Tuulola J. (A)	43. Loponen K.
33. Strandell O.	2. Rissanen R.
41. Nykanen J.	62. Nilsson W.
40. Sallinen T.	11. Tornqvist H.
87. Fabre D.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
Line 4
5. Rasanen I.	25. Paaso A.
28. Wia W.	16. Okany A.
42. Rauhala O. (C)	19. Tikka T.
17. Pavel O.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
32. Hovinen N. (G)	80. Korpimaki M.
	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Jalonen K.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
03:04, 1 - 0, Rasanen A. (G), Lindqvist M. (A), Tuulola J. (A2)
12:56, 2 - 0, Almari N. (G), Simontaival K. (A), Haapala H. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
05:20, Strandell O. (2 min),
09:42, Rissanen R. (2 min),
12:29, 3 - 0, Pavel O. (G), Wia W. (A), Rauhala O. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
16:39, Nilsson W. (2 min),
17:54, 4 - 0, Blichfeld J. (G), Lindqvist M. (A), Jokipakka J. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tappara won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Kärpät could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Tappara has faced a series of away games on the road.

Recently, Kärpät has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this matchup, Tappara is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Tappara in today's match, at odds of 1.75.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tappara has recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 60:46 (averaging 3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tappara against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 28:18 goals (averaging 2.8:1.8 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Tappara: 25.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
9	Tappara	11	5	2	0	4	32:24	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tappara hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	Jokerit - Tappara	0:6 ✺
17.09.26	TPS - Tappara	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	Pelicans - Tappara	2:3 ✺
Champions League Ice Hockey
13.09.26	Rögle - Tappara	4:0 ✺
11.09.26	Växjö Lakers - Tappara	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Kärpät - Ilves	3:4 OT ✺
05.09.26	Kärpät - JYP	3:4 ✺
01.09.26	Kärpät - Ässät	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	Tappara - Kärpät	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	Tappara - Kärpät	5:1
Finnish SM-liiga
28.02.26	Kärpät - Tappara	1:4
04.02.26	Tappara - Kärpät	1:4
01.11.25	Kärpät - Tappara	3:4
27.09.25	Tappara - Kärpät	3:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
29.08.25	Kärpät - Tappara	4:3 OT
Finnish SM-liiga
12.03.25	Tappara - Kärpät	0:3

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