Match Info

AUSTRIA: ICE Hockey League - Round 40

Date: 10 January 2025, Friday

Location: STEFFL Arena (Vienna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Vienna Capitals		Asiago

	1	X	2
	1.39	5.75	5.25
	1.42	5.05	5.75
	1.43	5.28	5.55	Watch
	1.4	5	5.5
	1.42	5.25	5.53	Watch
	1.42	5.05	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.77)	5.23 ↑ (4.21)	5.56 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vienna Capitals
65.6%

Draw
17.7%

Asiago
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

21.9%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

20.3%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vienna Capitals has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vienna Capitals's performance.

Asiago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Asiago might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vienna Capitals than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vienna Capitals that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Asiago than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Asiago could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96%	0%	4%

Vienna Capitals - Asiago Predictions

Users Predictions: Vienna Capitals will win (24 of 25 users predict this - 96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.32% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Wraneschitz S. (G)	31. Kaarlehto K. (G)
44. Raskob W.	16. Stevan M.
50. Fischer M.	57. Cairns M.
26. Jasper E.	21. Gennaro M.
19. Predan A.	71. Porco N.
92. Cramarossa J.	14. Ierullo A.
Line 2
55. Dougherty J.	11. Vallati G.
33. Donohue S.	17. Casetti L.
61. Franklin Z.	9. Misley B.
25. Gregoire J.	26. Kaspick T.
8. Bohm M.	54. Marcazzan G.
Line 3
71. Kirchschlager E.	4. Gios G.
40. Posch B.	53. Benetti S.
3. Preiser A.	98. Turnbull C.
37. Kromp C.	19. Rigoni F.
77. Koschek F.	95. Magnabosco M.
Line 4
91. Heinrich D.
23. Gruber R.
49. Theirich M.
10. Antal P.
69. Widhalm L.
Substitutes
42. Jones P. (G)	56. Tomasello J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 2)
01:42, 0 - 1, Turnbull C. (G), Rigoni F. (A),
03:05, 1 - 1, Gregoire J. (G), Franklin Z. (A), Dougherty J. (A2)
03:54, 2 - 1, Widhalm L. (G), Theirich M. (A), Fischer M. (A2)
19:42, 2 - 2, Gennaro M. (G), Ierullo A. (A), Turnbull C. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
05:30, 3 - 2, Preiser A. (G), Koschek F. (A), Fischer M. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
12:32, 4 - 2, Bohm M. (G), Theirich M. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ ICE Hockey League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vienna Capitals won 3.

Vienna Capitals is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Asiago has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Vienna Capitals is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Vienna Capitals won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 29:27 (average 2.9:2.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Vienna Capitals won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18:19 (average 3.6:3.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Asiago - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 26.04%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vienna Capitals
Austrian Ice Hockey League
08.01.25	Black Wings Linz - Vienna Capitals	4:3 OT ✺
05.01.25	Vienna Capitals - Graz 99ers	0:3 ✺
03.01.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Vienna Capitals	1:4 ✺
01.01.25	Vienna Capitals - EC KAC	4:7 ✺
30.12.24	Olimpija Ljubljana - Vienna Capitals	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWLL
- AS Asiago Hockey
Austrian Ice Hockey League
08.01.25	Asiago - TWK Innsbruck	2:9 ✺
05.01.25	Pioneers Vorarlberg - Asiago	5:2 ✺
03.01.25	Asiago - Villacher	1:4 ✺
01.01.25	Pustertal-Val Pusteria - Asiago	3:1 ✺
30.12.24	EC KAC - Asiago	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Ice Hockey League
06.12.24	Asiago - Vienna Capitals	2:3
11.10.24	Vienna Capitals - Asiago	2:1
26.01.24	Asiago - Vienna Capitals	1:2 OT
09.12.23	Vienna Capitals - Asiago	3:4 OT
17.11.23	Vienna Capitals - Asiago	4:5 OT
06.10.23	Asiago - Vienna Capitals	1:0
17.02.23	Asiago - Vienna Capitals	1:4

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