Match Info

NHL

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, DC)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	NHL.tv


	Washington Capitals		Ottawa Senators

	1	X	2
	2.85	4.1	2.15	Watch
	2.8	4.05	2.25
	2.74	4.22	2.25
	2.69	4.27	2.24	Watch
	2.5	3.9	2.25
	2.82	4.27	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.49)	4.14 ↑ (4.07)	2.24 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Washington Capitals
34.7%

Draw
22.9%

Ottawa Senators
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

23.2%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

25.1%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Washington Capitals has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Ottawa Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Washington Capitals than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Washington Capitals, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ottawa Senators, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Washington will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Ottawa will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ottawa: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ottawa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
48. Thompson L. (G)	35. Ullmark L. (G)
57. Van Riemsdyk T.	2. Zub A.
6. Chychrun J.	72. Chabot T. (A)
72. Beauvillier A.	28. Giroux C. (A)
17. Strome D. (A)	18. Stutzle T.
8. Ovechkin A. (C)	19. Batherson D.
Line 2
3. Roy M.	10. Spence J.
44. Hutson C.	43. Kleven T.
43. Wilson T. (A)	71. Greig R.
29. Lapierre H.	24. Cozens D.
21. Protas A.	7. Tkachuk B. (C)
Line 3
38. Sandin R.	33. Matinpalo N.
42. Fehervary M.	48. Gilbert D.
9. Leonard R.	22. Amadio M.
80. Dubois P.	12. Pinto S.
24. McMichael C.	21. Cousins N.
Line 4
53. Frank E.	20. Zetterlund F.
34. Sourdif J.	89. Eller L.
22. Duhaime B.	37. Foegele W.
Substitutes
79. Lindgren C. (G)	47. Reimer J. (G)
Coaches
. Carbery S.	. Green T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
11:51, Wilson T. (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
01:30, Cousins N. (2 min),
08:09, 1 - 0, Ovechkin A. (G), Sandin R. (A),
18:13, 2 - 0, Wilson T. (G), Van Riemsdyk T. (A), Dubois P. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
05:35, Wilson T. (2 min),
14:13, Beauvillier A. (2 min),
17:19, 2 - 1, Stutzle T. (G), Giroux C. (A), Chabot T. (A2)
18:28, 3 - 1, Protas A. (G), McMichael C. (A),
18:48, Kleven T. (2 min),
19:34, 4 - 1, Hutson C. (G),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Washington won 2.

In recent matches, Washington has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ottawa is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Washington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Washington won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 70:64. (average 3.5:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Washington won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 37:32. (average 3.7:3.2).

Outrights of NHL for now

Washington Capitals: 5.61% Ottawa Senators: 2.57%

Last Results with these Odds

Ottawa Senators - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.77%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Washington Capitals
NHL
14.03.26	Washington Capitals - Boston Bruins	2:3 penalties ✺
12.03.26	Buffalo Sabres - Washington Capitals	1:2 ✺
11.03.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Washington Capitals	4:1 ✺
09.03.26	Washington Capitals - Calgary Flames	7:3 ✺
07.03.26	Boston Bruins - Washington Capitals	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWL
- Ottawa Senators
NHL
15.03.26	Ottawa Senators - San Jose Sharks	7:4 ✺
14.03.26	Ottawa Senators - Anaheim Ducks	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Ottawa Senators - Montreal Canadiens	2:3 ✺
09.03.26	Vancouver Canucks - Ottawa Senators	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Seattle Kraken - Ottawa Senators	4:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
01.01.26	Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals	4:3
25.10.25	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	1:7
03.03.25	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	5:4 penalties
30.01.25	Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals	5:4 OT
16.01.25	Ottawa Senators - Washington Capitals	0:1 OT
07.04.24	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	2:3 OT
26.02.24	Washington Capitals - Ottawa Senators	6:3

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