Match Info

NHL

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Canada Life Centre (Winnipeg, MB)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NHL Network
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Winnipeg Jets		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	2.2	4	2.8	Watch
	2.13	4.19	2.91
	2.17	4.19	2.84	Watch
	2.1	4.33	2.88
	2.14	4.22	2.92
	2.1	4.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.78)	4.2 ↓ (4.21)	2.87 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Winnipeg Jets
44.3%

Draw
22.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

23%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

23.7%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Winnipeg Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Winnipeg Jets's performance.

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toronto Maple Leafs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Winnipeg Jets than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Winnipeg Jets that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Winnipeg will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Winnipeg: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Winnipeg (votes: 3 - 50%). Toronto (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
37. Hellebuyck C. (G)	35. Hildeby D. (G)
2. DeMelo D.	25. Carlo B.
44. Morrissey J. (A)	44. Rielly M. (A)
9. Iafallo A.	11. Domi M.
55. Scheifele M. (A)	34. Matthews A. (C)
81. Connor K.	74. McMann B.
Line 2
57. Salomonsson E.	28. Stecher T.
54. Samberg D.	22. McCabe J.
13. Vilardi G.	23. Knies M.
19. Toews J.	91. Tavares J. (A)
91. Perfetti C.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 3
5. Schenn L.	51. Myers P.
64. Stanley L.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
7. Namestnikov V.	89. Robertson N.
17. Lowry A. (C)	55. Roy N.
62. Niederreiter N.	53. Cowan E.
Line 4
70. Pearson T.	19. Jarnkrok C.
36. Barron M.	24. Laughton S.
45. Koepke C.	18. Lorentz S.
Substitutes
1. Comrie E. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
Coaches
. Arniel S.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
00:22, Carlo B. (2 min),
02:23, 1 - 0, Iafallo A. (G), Stanley L. (A), Namestnikov V. (A2)
06:53, Robertson N. (2 min),
08:59, 2 - 0, Connor K. (G), Vilardi G. (A),
09:22, 2 - 1, Matthews A. (G), Domi M. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
09:55, Toews J. (2 min),
14:52, Iafallo A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
02:28, 3 - 1, Niederreiter N. (G), Namestnikov V. (A), Schenn L. (A2)
05:58, 3 - 2, Ekman-Larsson O. (G), Robertson N. (A), Cowan E. (A2)
15:27, 3 - 3, McMann B. (G), Ekman-Larsson O. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
16:47, Knies M. (2 min),
Overtime (0 - 1)
03:08, 3 - 4, Domi M. (G), Matthews A. (A), Ekman-Larsson O. (A2)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Winnipeg won 1.

Winnipeg is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Toronto has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Winnipeg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Winnipeg has had a series of home games.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Winnipeg: Fleury H. (Upper-Body Injury) Miller C. (Lower-Body Injury) Pionk N. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Benoit S. (Upper-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Winnipeg won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 59:70. (average 3:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Winnipeg won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 2.6:3.7).

Outrights of NHL for now

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45% Winnipeg Jets: 0.74%

Last Results with these Odds

Winnipeg Jets - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 34.86%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Winnipeg Jets
NHL
15.01.26	Minnesota Wild - Winnipeg Jets	2:6 ✺
13.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - New York Islanders	5:4 ✺
11.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - New Jersey Devils	4:3 ✺
09.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Los Angeles Kings	5:1 ✺
08.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Edmonton Oilers	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWL
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT ✺
13.01.26	Utah Mammoth - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:1 ✺
12.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
10.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vancouver Canucks	5:0 ✺
08.01.26	Philadelphia Flyers - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
01.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	6:5
23.12.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	2:5
28.10.24	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:6
27.01.24	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:4
24.01.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	1:0 OT
19.01.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Winnipeg Jets	4:1
22.10.22	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4

Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide